This was a really good number. It was partially a rebound from October. Non-store retailers were a big area of strength. I do think some holiday sales were pulled forward. Regardless, December is an easy comp, so next month's release should again be fine. Year over year sales grew 4.1%. Consumer strength continues. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational [...]
Retail sales make up about a quarter of GDP, so an important monthly number. I saw a lot of headlines saying this was a disappointing number. But that isn't the case, the print was actually good. Sequentially, expectations were low for this print because September 2023 and October of 2022 were so strong. The sequential number was expected at -.3% [...]
The street applauded this number and bond yields soared. The market initially sold off as bond yields hit 4.83%, a new cycle high. Stocks were down as much as 1.5% before recovering all their losses by lunchtime. I think the retail sales number confirms the strength of the 3rd quarter. Optimism for earnings is currently outweighing higher interest rates. In [...]
Is the US economy on the verge of recession? Is it already in recession? We have several indications that the US economy is slowing and at least one that points to recession soon and maybe now. From the Conference Board's release of its Leading Economic Indicators last week: “The US LEI fell for an eighth consecutive month, suggesting the economy [...]
Investors crave certainty. They want to know that there are definitive signals for them to follow as they adjust their investments to fit the current market and economy. They want to know that A leads to B leads to C. Tea leaf readers are always in high demand on Wall Street and they continue to find employment despite their almost [...]
Note: This update is longer than usual but I felt a comprehensive review was necessary. The Federal Reserve panicked last week and spooked investors into the worst week for stocks since the onset of COVID in March 2020. The S&P 500 is now firmly in bear market territory but that is a fraction of the pain in stocks and other [...]
Neither Jay Powell nor Janet Yellen see recession risk. They’re coverage, though, ends at the US boundary, each thoroughly trained on the wrong idea the US economy is an island. While it isn’t and it has its own very visible recession problems right now, properly speaking globally there’s no bigger recession risk-ignition than over on the other side of the [...]
Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Warren Buffett People are always asking me where's the outlook good, but that's the wrong question. The right question is: Where is the outlook the most miserable? Sir John Templeton, The Principle of Maximum Pessimism I don't know if we're at the point of maximum pessimism yet but [...]
It isn’t just semantics, nor some trivial, egotistical use of quotation marks. There is an actual and vast difference between inflation and “inflation.” And in the final results, that difference isn’t strictly or even mainly about consumer prices.Who cares, most people wonder. After all, what does it really matter why prices are going up so far? The pain this causes [...]
The fact that German retail sales crashed so much in April 2022 is significant for a couple reasons. First, it more than suggests something is wrong with Germany, and not just some run-of-the-mill hiccup. Second, because it was this April rather than last April or last summer, you can’t blame COVID this time. Something else is going on.In America, the [...]
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