If I had to define the recovery period that developed after the trough in the Great Recession, it would have ended sometime in the middle of 2011. Up to that point, there was almost a uniform behavior in financial and even economic accounts (though, on the economic side, there was much left to be desired). It was by no means [...]
Well, it's that time of year again, when all the pundits offer their crystal ball views of the coming new year. I don't usually participate in the prediction game and this year won't be any different. Like everyone else I wonder what the future holds but I know I have no special ability to predict how it might unfold. What [...]
I hate to do it, but I'm going to have to write about politics this week. Believe me, it isn't something I relish, but in light of the recent election, it would be dereliction of duty to ignore the elephant and donkey in the room. Let's get this out of the way right up front; Obama got shellacked last Tuesday. [...]
The Federal Reserve ended QE3 last week as was widely expected and markets seemed to take it calmly enough. Stocks and bonds fluctuated, as they tend to do, but the end result was a non-event. It seemed that investors were willing to give the economy and the markets the benefit of the doubt as we wait to see how things [...]
Under the headling, Kuroda Surprises With Stimulus Boost as Japan Struggles, is the following summation: Today’s decision comes almost 19 months after Kuroda unleashed his initial asset-purchase plan, with the intention of doubling the monetary base. That move similarly drove up stocks and undercut the yen. Since then, a more competitive exchange rate has triggered higher corporate earnings, and asset-price [...]
In another piece of the puzzle ending the reign of Bernanke’s monetary influence, there remains deep dissatisfaction with the economy. Poll after poll just ahead of the coming midterms shows the economy as “somehow” the top concern. The discontent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll is palpable. Despite its fitful gains, seven in 10 Americans rate the nation’s economy [...]
Stocks rebounded in spectacular fashion last week, the angst of the last few weeks apparently forgotten as quickly as a central banker can float a trial balloon. First there was the Bullard bounce that moved us off the lows when things were looking their grimmest and then last week we got a rumor about the ECB potentially buying corporate bonds [...]
Terminology and semantics have an important place in communication because we want to convey concise and accurate meaning as efficiently as possible. That is why I disdain the term “petrodollar” when speaking or writing about the global exchange standard that replaced gold in the Bretton Woods sense. The idea of a “petrodollar” conveys some of the “right” characteristics but leaves [...]
I want to believe markets are efficient and incorporate "all" the possible permutations as best as possible, but I don't think that is the case under current conditions. Whatever efficiency there has been, or whatever may have been exhibited in the past, was degraded by financial engineering, and not just interest rate targeting by the Fed and other central bank [...]
The stock market rallied hard into Janet Yellen's speech Friday at Jackson Hole, expecting some epiphany I suppose about the future course of monetary policy. What we got instead was Labor Market Dynamics And Monetary Policy, the purpose of which I can only suppose was to bore the market to death. Economics is not the most exciting subject in any [...]
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