It was one of those little things that really shouldn’t have made any difference whatsoever, an interesting if trivial little nugget left behind for only obsessive scholars to care any about. Late in the morning of February 24, 2021, Fedwire shutdown. The fact a couple hours inactive snowballed into something bigger, we wondered if this would end up being indicative [...]
The recovery, or reflation, was sort of sailing along until suddenly it wasn’t. At least that was the impression anyone would’ve gotten from pretty much every mainstream source. The reality of the (global) economy’s rebound from last year’s recession was a touch more nuanced, having actually struggled quite a lot between Uncle Sam’s Helicopter #1 and #2; the hadn’t begun [...]
This week marks a change in our economic environment or at least our perception of it. Last year, post-COVID onset, we characterized the environment as one marked by a falling dollar and improving growth. To be exact, that is the environment the markets reflected; interest rates were rising, the yield curve was steepening and the dollar was falling. That changed [...]
Whomever actually coined the term “taper”, using it in the context of Federal Reserve QE for the first time, it wasn’t actually Ben Bernanke. On May 22, 2013, the central bank’s Chairman sat in front of Congressman Kevin Brady and used the phrase “step down in our pace of purchases.” No good, at least from the perspective of a media-driven [...]
It has taken nearly two years for Germany’s ZEW to finally close its gap. The index for sentiment had popped all the way back in September 2019 buoyed by the ECB restarting QE; these peculiar German businesspersons who make up this particular survey panel do love their “stimulus” announcements no matter how many times the actual policy fails to stimulate [...]
Money printing. Overheating. Going from an economy stuck in the mud to one rocketing ahead seemingly in the blink of an eye. Careless government officials steadfastly forecasting Goldilocks, surely whistling past the consumer price graveyard of stagflation misery.Long believed dead, that seventies Inflation Monster relit maybe by necessity but now on the loose lurking just beneath the surface, ready to [...]
In one sense, we have a template to follow, two potentially, but in another there may not be one this time. I’m talking about reflation and how it plays out specifically in bond yields because these have been among the most reliable indicators. Economists and central bankers unaware of this wealth of information right in front of them, right here [...]
Go early and go fast. This was the message FOMC Governor Christopher Waller wanted to send to the CNBC audience watching his interview yesterday on that channel. He was referring to the possible taper of QE6. In Waller’s view, if the US economy lives up to its current hype in the form of two more blowout jobs numbers, those would [...]
Of course inflation numbers, the PCE Deflators for June 2021, but first in the same report as those the BEA also released its various data on income and spending. In the former category, income, we’ll find a big reason why this deviation for consumer prices most likely ends up as temporary. And before we can get to that, big benchmark [...]
Ceremony and ritual are not just important concepts for priming and keeping faith, they are absolute essentials. There’s a reason why cult leaders make themselves appear - at every instance - indispensable while at the same time keeping their masses busy with nonsense. Can’t ever permit thinking too much lest the house of cards crash downward at the first slight [...]
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