Bring out your dead! CUSTOMER: Here's one. CART MASTER: Nine pence. DEAD PERSON: I'm not dead! CART MASTER: What? CUSTOMER: Nothing. Here's your nine pence. DEAD PERSON: I'm not dead! CART MASTER: 'Ere. He says he's not dead! CUSTOMER: Yes, he is. DEAD PERSON: I'm not! CART MASTER: He isn't? CUSTOMER: Well, he will be soon. He's very ill. DEAD PERSON: I'm getting better! CUSTOMER: No, you're not. You'll be stone dead in [...]
One of the toughest things about navigating this bear market and the widely anticipated coming recession is that we've had to differentiate between real and nominal economic and market variables like nothing in recent decades. There are very few market commentators today who have navigated an inflationary environment like the current one. I haven't either, of course, which is why [...]
A bank's assets triple over a few years when interest rates are low. The bank invests those assets in long-term, higher-yielding municipal bonds with little credit risk. Inflation flares up and interest rates rise, reducing the value of the municipal bonds and funding dries up. Regulators become concerned that the failure of this bank could damage public confidence in the [...]
Note: This will be my last full commentary for 2022. I will spend the month of December on research for next year, visiting with family, and taking some much-needed time off. I will still be watching markets, as will all the other members of the Alhambra team and if something happens which requires me to communicate, I'll certainly do that. [...]
Is the US economy on the verge of recession? Is it already in recession? We have several indications that the US economy is slowing and at least one that points to recession soon and maybe now. From the Conference Board's release of its Leading Economic Indicators last week: “The US LEI fell for an eighth consecutive month, suggesting the economy [...]
One thing I can tell you for certain about last week's big rally on Thursday and Friday: there were a lot of people who desperately wanted a good excuse to buy stocks. And buy they did after a better-than-expected CPI report Thursday morning, pushing the S&P 500 up nearly 6% on the week with all of that coming on Thursday [...]
The FOMC met last week and did what everyone expected them to do - raised the Fed Funds rate by 0.75%. The bond and stock markets reacted not to this action but to the commentary provided by the committee in its statement and by Chairman Jerome Powell at his post meeting press conference. The former had a new phrase, a [...]
I have often been accused over the years of being too optimistic and I will plead guilty to having a little rose-colored tint in my glasses. I am an optimist by nature and I search constantly for good things to write about. There are more than enough people out there willing to tell you the world is coming to an [...]
Markets were rather volatile last week. That's a wild understatement and what passes for sarcasm in the investment business. Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn't surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rearview mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain [...]
The Federal Reserve has been on a mission lately to make sure everyone knows they are serious about killing the inflation they created. Over the last two weeks, Federal Reserve officials delivered 37 speeches, all of the speakers competing to see who could be the most hawkish. Interest rates are going up they said, no matter how much it hurts, [...]
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