The GSCI Commodity Index ((GSG)) consists primarily of Energy (71%), but also contains Agriculture (14%), Industrial Metals (7%), Livestock (4%), and Precious Metals (4%). The index fell below the 200-day moving average, falling to the 32.30 support level. With the dollar likely to strengthen further, and the index slightly below support, look for the index to breakthrough to the downside, contingent on the government not pursuing another round of quantitative easing. As mentioned in an earlier post, long-term prospects for the GSG don’t look too great.

The Dow Jones-AIG Energy Total Return Index ((JJE)) consists of Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Heating Oil, and Unleaded Gas. The index has failed in its attempt to cross over the 50-day MA after breaking support a couple of months ago, and as a result has continued its tumble. A silver lining? Falling energy prices can have the potential to be a boon to consumers and the economy as a whole.

The DJ-AIG Grains Total Return Index ((JJG)) consists of Corn, Wheat, and Soybeans. The index is the best performing commodity index, despite the fact that it recently broke both the 50-day and 200-day MA and its the uptrend line. Look for the index to test support at the $43 level.

The DJ- AIG Industrial Metals Total return Index ((JJM)) includes Aluminum, Copper, Nickel, and Zinc. The index peaked late in the 1st quarter, before failing at the 200-day MA and breaking support at the 50-day MA. Weakening industrial metal prices such as copper tend to predate weakening economic statistics.

The DJ-AIG Precious Metals Index ((JJP)) includes Gold and Silver. With the Fed in no hurry to restart another round of quantitative easing (money printing), the index has broken down, breaking below the 50-day, 200-day, and short-term uptrend line.

The DJ-AIG Softs Index ((JJS)) includes Coffee, Cotton, and Sugar. Along with energy, it is one of the worst performing sub-indices.