Monthly Archives: February 2021

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 46; Part 3: Bill’s Reading On Reflation, And Other Charted Potpourri

By |2021-02-18T18:31:43-05:00February 18th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

46.3 On the Economic Road to NothingGoodVilleRecent, low consumer price inflation readings combined with falling US Treasury Bill yields are cautionary sign posts that say this reflationary path may not be the road to recovery but a deflationary cul-de-sac. [Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only natural that your podcaster spent considerable time contemplating the essential [...]

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Already Tried: イールドカーブコントロール

By |2021-02-17T20:10:05-05:00February 17th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Aussies weren’t the first to drive into the YCC channel. That “honor” belonged instead where it always does: Japan. The Japanese had also pioneered yield curve control just like they had for practically every single element behind post-crisis monetary policy everywhere else around the world. It’s always a safe bet that if some central bank somewhere starts doing something [...]

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Uncle Sam Was Back Having Consumers’ Backs

By |2021-02-17T17:41:07-05:00February 17th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Markets|

American consumers were back in action in January 2021. The “unemployment cliff” along with the slowdown and contraction in the labor market during the last quarter of 2020 had left retail sales falling backward with employment. Seasonally-adjusted, total retail spending had declined for three straight months to end last year.The latest updated estimates from the Census Bureau, released today, show [...]

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 46; Part 2: Sin City Roulette, The Endangered Gazelles

By |2021-02-17T15:33:00-05:00February 17th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

46.2 Nevada Solution to Covid Economy: CEO as RulerNevada's tourism economy has been wrecked by the Corona. Governor Sisolak, to encourage investment, is proposing to offer corporations to set up their own local government structures. [Emil’s Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years it was only natural that your podcaster spent considerable time contemplating the essential elements of fiction. Some [...]

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With YCC About To Come Back Up, A Look At It Down Under

By |2021-02-16T20:28:36-05:00February 16th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Long end UST yields on the rise with reflation-y factors taking more of a hold, last year’s postponed YCC flirtation is almost certain to be rekindled over the weeks ahead. We’ve been told how it’s really simple, meaning low interest rates are stimulus and this must be maintained without fail. But what’s really been responsible for all the failing?When I [...]

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Reflation Patients, ‘Another’ Six Months

By |2021-02-16T18:06:03-05:00February 16th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The idea behind post-Georgia reflation is that globally fiscal-led “stimulus” will be enough to fix what’s still wrong. The economy broke down, by choice, last year but with sufficient zeroes behind governments spending around the world, from DC to Brussels and a bunch in between, whatever costs and consequences remaining due from 2020 aren’t going to be unmanageable for 2021. [...]

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 46; Part 1: Getting Fishy in the CHIPS

By |2021-02-16T15:38:34-05:00February 16th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

46.1 Interbank Netting: The Pressure to Get to ZeroPrivate banks fund global economic activity. But how do they move money among themselves? We consider the November 20, 1985 software glitch that shocked the interbank market. Then, a brief history of Fedwire, Telex, SWIFT and CHIPS. Finally, September 2019's repo market freeze. [Emil's Summary] Having studied monetary policy for several years [...]

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Weekly Market Pulse – February 15, 2021

By |2021-02-15T20:10:42-05:00February 15th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

This is a holiday-shortened week in the US but there is some important data on tap. Retail sales are expected to show a month-to-month rise for the first time since September. Year-over-year numbers remain pretty subdued and likely will until life returns to something resembling normal. Producer prices will likely rise but inflation continues its benign ways. It is likely [...]

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Forty-Seven Explains Much

By |2021-02-12T18:57:36-05:00February 12th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For Jay Powell’s inflation case, the University of Michigan provided it with some badly needed support. Telling the world he “flooded” it with “digital money printing” three-quarters of a year ago, actual inflation rates have instead fallen down to or near historic lows. No biggie, those in Powell’s corner say, just a matter of time before this changes (commodities!), possibly [...]

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