Since the beginning of the year, gold is up nearly 12% while the S&P 500 is only up a little over 4%, an outcome that is feeding a lot of narratives about it's cause. There have been rumors about the Federal Reserve or the US Treasury buying gold because the US is preparing to devalue the dollar or maybe issue [...]
The stock market was having a good week until just around 10 am last Friday. Stocks rallied during the week as earnings reports were pretty good - with exceptions as always - and the economic news wasn't bad either. On earnings specifically, Q4 '24 is shaping up as the best quarter in the last three years with earnings so far [...]
By the time you read this, markets around the world will be reacting to the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico and additional tariffs on China. I don't know what exactly that reaction will be although it seems unlikely to be positive, at least initially. Regardless of the market reaction, investors need to be careful not to [...]
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. H.L. Mencken By the time you read this we'll have a new President. Well, actually, he's an old President, but whatever we think we know about him from his first term may not be much help in the second. The group of people about to take [...]
The December employment report was released last Friday and it was quite a bit better than expected. Expectations were for payrolls to rise by 160,000 on the month but instead 256,000 people found a job and started working. For reference, the 3-month average is a gain of 170,000 so there was a significant acceleration in December. The unemployment rate fell [...]
At the beginning of every year, investment firms around the world publish their year-ahead outlook for markets and the economy. These prognostications can be interesting but not for the targets they place on various market or economic metrics. It is difficult to predict the long-term return of the stock market in advance but it is impossible to predict the short-term [...]
As is my usual practice, this will be my last commentary for the year barring big news (and most "news" isn't, especially that of the market variety). While I won't be writing for the next month, that doesn't mean I won't be working. I use the month of December to catch up on my research reading (books and academic papers) [...]
This is not just an artwork; it represents a cultural phenomenon that bridges the worlds of art, memes, and the cryptocurrency community. I believe this piece will inspire more thought and discussion in the future and will become a part of history. I am honored to be the proud owner of this iconic work and look forward to it [...]
I don't spend a lot of time trying to predict the future, mostly because, as I pointed out just last week, I'm not very good at it. There's no shame in that and it doesn't impair my ability to invest; the gift of prophecy is not necessary. A couple of weeks ago, right before the election I speculated on what [...]
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