Most investment firms kick off the new year with "outlook" pieces, offering futile predictions on the S&P 500's year-end close or the frequency of Fed rate hikes. I try to avoid such oracular activity and stick to analyzing the present, which isn't as easy as it first sounds. But I do read many of these tomes - if brevity is [...]
As we near the end of the first year of President Trump's second presidential term, the debate about his economic policies hasn't changed much. That's because it isn't an economic debate mostly, but a political one and that applies to the public as well as economists (yes, they are as vulnerable to political bias as anyone else). Democrats hate Trump's [...]
We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives. Plan 9 From Outer Space I have no idea what will happen this year. Neither does anyone else. If this is your first time reading one of my commentaries, you should probably know that I say that [...]
As is my custom, I'll be taking a break from these weekly updates for the rest of the year. That doesn't mean I'll be loafing my way to year end though. I'll probably do some short posts as things come up before year end but my main focus will be on the 2026 outlook that we'll publish in a couple [...]
A few weeks ago I asked the question that everyone is asking today: Is This A Bubble? My answer, as it is for most questions about the future, is that I don't know. But there are some things I do know: The S&P 500 is priced for low future returns, quite possibly negative on a real basis over the next [...]
President Trump announced last week that certain food products and some other goods will now be exempt from his "reciprocal"* tariffs. Some of these goods are things that we can't produce here in the US, like bananas and coffee, but others are products that, for various reasons, happen to be in short supply, like beef. President Trump said these actions [...]
Our view of the economy is somewhat obscured by the lack of official data but what information we do have from the last month points to an economy that continues to weaken - continuing a trend that has prevailed all year. The most obvious negative pronouncement about the economy came from voters last week, who produced some big surprises in [...]
Are US markets, once again, in a bubble? Are AI stocks overvalued or are they discounting a new age of prosperity driven by big gains in productivity? What about gold? It's up over 50% this year, signaling...what exactly? Gold is a fear asset that usually shines when the economy is bad and stocks aren't doing so well. So, why is [...]
The arrest last week of several ex-NBA players - and one current head coach - on gambling charges, seems to have no connection to markets or investing or the economy. Miami Heat player Terry Rozier is accused of providing insider information about NBA games and his own performance to gamblers who placed bets and laundered their winnings. Chauncey Billups, an [...]
Was that it? Was that the top? A week ago, the market fell 2.7% as President Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1st. Since that Friday selloff, the market has stabilized and recovered a little over half that one day loss. The S&P 500 is now down just about 1.5% from its all-time high. Is [...]
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