Market based expectations for growth and inflation have moderated slightly since the last update. Since mid-December, interest rates - nominal and real - have fallen back, the yield curve has flattened, the dollar index has pulled back from its highs and gold has moved off its lows. In short, the Trump trade is being partially reversed as it dawns on investors [...]
“Optimism means better than reality; pessimism means worse than reality. I'm a realist.” Margaret Atwood, Author The end of 2016 is right around the corner, and what an interesting year it has been. The Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is up year-to-date, through yesterday, by 10.67% (13.04% including dividends) and domestic intermediate taxable bonds as measured by Barclays Intermediate U.S. [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard The incoming economic data has improved since the last update with a plethora of reports coming in better than expected. This is the longest run of better than expected data we've had in some time and encompasses a wide variety of indicators. Most surprising I think is that we are seeing a bit of an upturn in [...]
Markets have moved sharply over the last month, mostly in the post-election period. Stocks are up - small caps exuberantly so - the dollar is up, bonds and gold are down. Surprisingly though, our indicators did not move all that much. The direction of change in the indicators is consistent with the moves in assets but not the magnitude. The [...]
“There is one day that is ours. Thanksgiving Day is the one day that is purely American.” - O. Henry (author) With the election thankfully behind us and the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index up over 2% since then, investors are possibly at an even more challenging risk/reward crossroads than before. The resolution of a highly contentious election and rhetoric regarding [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard The reported economic data of the last few weeks (it's been 3 weeks since my last update so I guess technically this isn't the Bi-Weekly Review) provides about as much direction and insight as the polls conducted prior to the election. To my eye, the trend here is trendless with a decidedly mixed set of data, each [...]
Back in June I mused about a Trump election: Forget for a minute that Donald Trump is the Republican nominee. Think about the policies he is likely to propose as President and how they might affect the markets. Forget the campaign rhetoric for a minute, the things he’s proposed that can’t get done because the US President isn’t a dictator [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard There was little improvement in the economic data the last couple of weeks, the Citigroup Economic Surprise index still well below zero (-8.1). And frankly, where there was improvement such as the GDP report, it doesn't look sustainable...unless the US is about to become a soybean exporting powerhouse. Anything is possible I suppose but counting on Brazil [...]
“…don’t speak too soon for the wheel’s still in spin, and there’s no telling who that it’s naming. For the loser now will be later to win, cause the times they are a-changing” Bob Dylan (Lyrics) As November 8th approaches, our newly minted Noble Prize winner, Bob Dylan’s song, “The Times They are A-Changin” is right on the money. At [...]
As with last month, I delayed this update a few days to see if we might gain some clarity that would warrant some change in our allocation. Alas, no such clarity has emerged and so, as it has been since August, the risk budget remains unchanged this month. Indeed, as last month, the entire portfolio is unchanged. For the moderate [...]
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