We received a host of economics reports this past week; some good, others not so much. The week started with the Consumer Price Index report coming in better than expected at an increase of just 0.1% from the previous month (7.1% from a year ago), compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 7.3%. This is great news (and the market [...]
Note: This will be my last full commentary for 2022. I will spend the month of December on research for next year, visiting with family, and taking some much-needed time off. I will still be watching markets, as will all the other members of the Alhambra team and if something happens which requires me to communicate, I'll certainly do that. [...]
International events and a strong U.S. dollar and not decimating foreign markets as you would expect. And things look even better if viewed through the lens of local currencies. Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun breaks down the Currency Illusion.
Is the US economy on the verge of recession? Is it already in recession? We have several indications that the US economy is slowing and at least one that points to recession soon and maybe now. From the Conference Board's release of its Leading Economic Indicators last week: “The US LEI fell for an eighth consecutive month, suggesting the economy [...]
Is recession coming? When? Can we tell? Steve Brennan and Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun look at specific language from Jerome Powell, if there will be a soft landing, and whether a peak in interest rates gives any indication about the timing of a recession.
One thing I can tell you for certain about last week's big rally on Thursday and Friday: there were a lot of people who desperately wanted a good excuse to buy stocks. And buy they did after a better-than-expected CPI report Thursday morning, pushing the S&P 500 up nearly 6% on the week with all of that coming on Thursday [...]
Jerome Powell has said repeatedly that the Fed's goal is to get rates higher and leave them there for an extended period of time. He believes that the mistake of the 70s was that once higher rates snuffed out inflation, the Fed cut rates too quickly and the inflation returned. I think the mistake of the 70s was that, by [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun has an opinion on why the market was on a roller coaster after the Fed statement last week; There’s more than one way to calculate the 10/3 yield curve, and don’t put all you hope on a single market indicator.
The FOMC met last week and did what everyone expected them to do - raised the Fed Funds rate by 0.75%. The bond and stock markets reacted not to this action but to the commentary provided by the committee in its statement and by Chairman Jerome Powell at his post meeting press conference. The former had a new phrase, a [...]
I have often been accused over the years of being too optimistic and I will plead guilty to having a little rose-colored tint in my glasses. I am an optimist by nature and I search constantly for good things to write about. There are more than enough people out there willing to tell you the world is coming to an [...]
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