Powell’s White Whale
The lagged effect of inflation. Jay Powell: Call me Ishmael.
Goldilocks Calling
Since the summer of 2020, my expectation for the US economy has been that once all the COVID distortions are gone, it would revert to its previous trend growth of around 2%. And that seems to be exactly what is going on with the economy right now. There was a shift in consumption preference during COVID for goods over services [...]
Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses how last week's Federal Reserve meeting contained nothing new and actually confirmed what the markets have been saying about interest rates and recession.
Weekly Market Pulse: The Dog That Didn’t Bark
Gregory (Scotland Yard detective): “Is there any other point to which you would wish to draw my attention?” Sherlock Holmes: “To the curious incident of the dog in the night-time.” Gregory: “The dog did nothing in the night-time.” Sherlock Holmes: “That was the curious incident.” From Silver Blaze by Arthur Conan Doyle, 1892 It is hard to determine sometimes what [...]
Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about investor psychology toward current markets and how investor foibles never change. He also discusses the uptrend in the 10-Year Treasury and the Dollar.
Weekly Market Pulse: Regrets
Over the last few months, as the outlook for the economy turned more sour, I've used these weekly commentaries to warn you not to get too negative. Long-term investors need to have a strategy they can stick with no matter what happens, a strategy that keeps them on an even keel. If you were so nervous that you sold out [...]
Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun tells a Tale of Two Economies, conflicting reports, who he’s listening to and not taking the reports at face value.
Weekly Market Pulse: Opposite George
It all became very clear to me sitting out there today, that every decision I've ever made, in my entire life, has been wrong. My life is the complete opposite of everything I want it to be. Every instinct I have, in every aspect of life, be it something to wear, something to eat... It's all been wrong. Every one. [...]
Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses whether the economy is in early or late cycle, what last week’s employment numbers really mean, and two concerning economic indicators.
Leave It To Eurodollar
It was the laziest of arguments, saturated with desperation, too, the equivalent of waving around sophistry to answer for the painfully contradictory truth. Now that feces and fans are getting further acquainted, we have the necessary perspective to settle the matter once and for all. The matter refuses to be settled, however; I mean, it’s 2022 and we’re still arguing [...]
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