So if you think your life is complete confusionBecause you never win the gameJust remember that it's a grand illusionAnd deep inside we're all the sameWe're all the same So if you think your life is complete confusionBecause your neighbors got it madeJust remember that it's a grand illusionAnd deep inside we're all the same Styx, The Grand Illusion Money [...]
Jerome Powell's tenure as the Chairman of the Federal Reserve has ended. Not literally, of course, because apparently Scott Bessent has, for now, talked President Trump out of firing him. But despite that reprieve, there are now several Chairmen of the Federal Reserve, none of them named Powell. He is the lamest of ducks. A lame duck, literally, is a [...]
If, at the beginning of the year, anyone had predicted what actually happened in the first half of 2025, they would have been ridiculed and dismissed as delusional. If you were told that... Between January and April, the average US tariff rate will rise from 2.5% to 27% Among the Trump administration's first moves on trade will be to impose [...]
Note: I wrote most of this commentary prior to the US strike on Iran and I decided to go ahead with it anyway. I don't know any more than you do about what is going on in the Middle East and trying to predict what will happen in the coming days and weeks is a fool's errand. We have a [...]
As is my usual practice, this will be my last commentary for the year barring big news (and most "news" isn't, especially that of the market variety). While I won't be writing for the next month, that doesn't mean I won't be working. I use the month of December to catch up on my research reading (books and academic papers) [...]
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, there are a lot of questions facing investors. There are, of course, always a lot of questions because investors are always dealing with the future, but today's environment does seems to have more than usual. Some of these questions concern short-term considerations and while they are important, it is more important to [...]
What do you get when the Central Bank lowers interest rates by 50 basis points in a good economy? Just what we've seen since this happened on September 18, a surge in commodities. Is your portfolio diversified? Ebbs and flows in the market can sneak up on us and today's markets react quickly and sometimes violently. Did you see the [...]
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