It's Fed week again, when the monetary mandarins gather to set interest rates and guide the economy according to the latest 3-year plan (central planning may not have worked for the communists but our people are smarter). This is a quarterly meeting when they'll sift through the tea leaves or gaze into their crystal balls or whatever they do to [...]
You're going to hear a lot of talk about the yield curve soon and what it means for "the" yield curve to uninvert (which isn't a real word but will get used a lot). The difference between the 10-year Treasury note yield and the 2-year Treasury note yield is about to turn positive, the 2-year note yield recently falling a [...]
Overall, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace. But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased. As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate. The time has [...]
I can calculate the movements of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of people. - Sir Isaac Newton, upon losing a fortune on South Sea Company stock Newton's Laws of Motion An object at rest remains at rest, and an object in motion remains in motion at constant speed and in a straight line unless acted on by an [...]
The Senior Loan Officer Survey came out yesterday and I'm sure you've been waiting on pins and needles, as I have, to see the results. Okay, maybe you had better things to do. I sure hope so because it isn't exactly riveting. Here's the description from the Fed's website: Survey of up to eighty large domestic banks and twenty-four U.S. [...]
What a difference a day makes! After a two-week correction of nearly 5%, the S&P 500 spent the first part of last week rallying in anticipation of a friendly Fed meeting. That Fed meeting Wednesday produced the expected, namely that a rate cut in September was likely. That pushed the S&P 500 up over 2% from the Fed meeting to [...]
There's been a pretty remarkable turnaround in markets over the last 10 days. At the end of June, market returns were dominated by large cap growth stocks. The Russell 1000 growth index was up 20.5% while the value index was up a mere 6.5%, a spread rarely seen over such a short period of time. The Russell 2000 index of [...]
Special Note On Hurricane Beryl: As thousands of people in coastal Texas remain without power after Hurricane Beryl devastated the region last week, relief groups on the ground are asking for donations to aid their efforts. Here are a few organizations that can put monetary gifts to use right now. - "Where crisis strikes, hunger follows." The U.N. World Food [...]
Growth is slowing Inflation remains sticky Dollar stays firm Interest rates have probably peaked but higher for longer Growth peaked on a quarter over quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q3 last year at 4.9%. The preferred reading is on an annual basis where growth peaked in Q4 of last year at 3.13%. Growth in Q1 was 2.88% and growth [...]
"The uncertainty about where neutral is today creates a challenge for policymakers." - Neel Kashkari, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Last week was a volatile one for markets with big swings in stocks and bonds in a holiday-shortened week. The economic data didn't appear to be sufficiently out of the expected range to justify big moves but we got them anyway. [...]
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