Weekly Market Pulse: Fat Pitch?

By |2022-05-09T08:40:40-04:00May 9th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Something very important happened last week. No, it had nothing to do with the stock market, at least not directly. There was a lot of volatility in stocks last week but in the end, the S&P 500 was down a mere 21 basis points (0.21%). Yes, growth stocks continued their march toward reality with the NASDAQ 100 down 1.25% but [...]

Dollar Now Leads, Rest Of The Market Pack Now Follows

By |2022-05-06T20:14:29-04:00May 6th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US$ continues on its rampage, particularly zeroed in on China for simple if misunderstood reasons (that have nothing to do with “devaluation”). What about the rest of the marketplace, the other stuff which identifies the eurodollar’s various cycles? You know about T-bills, which, yet again today, are more like what the dollar is suggesting. Other than those, what’s the [...]

Far From Stellar, Employment Likely Went Negative In April

By |2022-05-06T18:04:27-04:00May 6th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It appears as if most reactions to today’s April 2022 payroll were quite positive, maybe enthusiastic when they should not have been. Though the Establishment Survey - the CES headline number most people pay attention to - gained 428,000 over March’s tally, it was the “other” one which crashed down like last week’s negative GDP thud.From the CES view, you [...]

All The Dead Horses, And All Powell’s Men, Can’t Make Sense of Europe – Again

By |2022-05-05T20:27:17-04:00May 5th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As a preface to this update ostensibly on Europe, it’s all really about Euro$ #5 sadly rounding into form. In this first part, I’m going to have resurrect the quotation marks surrounding the term “rate hikes”, or bring back RHINO (rate hikes in name only) given what’s going on in Treasury bills.Not rate hikes, or enough of them. Our dead [...]

Who’s Playing Puppetmaster, And Who Is Master of Puppets

By |2022-05-04T20:21:38-04:00May 4th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Cue up the old VHS tapes of Bill Clinton. The former President was renowned for displaying, anyway, great empathy. He famously said in October 1992, weeks before the election that would bring him to the White House, “I feel your pain.”What pain? As Clinton’s chief political advisor later clarified, “it’s the economy stupid.”Jay Powell is no retail politician in near [...]

Collateral Shortage…From *A* Fed Perspective

By |2022-05-03T20:32:04-04:00May 3rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s never just one thing or another. Take, for example, collateral scarcity. By itself, it’s already a problem but it may not be enough to bring the whole system to reverse. A good illustration would be 2017. Throughout that whole year, T-bill rates (4-week, in particular) kept indicating this very shortfall, especially the repeated instances when equivalent bill yields would [...]

China Then Europe Then…

By |2022-05-03T18:42:18-04:00May 3rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This is the difference, though in the end it only amounts to a matter of timing. When pressed (very modestly) on the slow pace of the ECB’s “inflation” “fighting” (theater) campaign, its President, Christine Lagarde, once again demonstrated her willingness to be patient if not cautious. Why?For one thing, she noted how Europe produces a lot of stuff that, at [...]

What Really ‘Raises’ The Rising ‘Dollar’

By |2022-05-02T22:25:11-04:00May 2nd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s one of those things which everyone just accepts because everyone says it must be true. If the US$ is rising, what else other than the Federal Reserve. In particular, the Fed has to be raising rates in relation to other central banks; interest rate differentials. A relatively more “hawkish” US policy therefore the wind in the sails of a [...]

Synchronized Manufacturing, Hopefully Not Mao

By |2022-05-02T17:59:41-04:00May 2nd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This is one of those cases when Inigo Montoya, the lovable if fictional rapscallion from the movie The Princess Bride, would pop into the scene to devastatingly deliver his now famous rebuke. Last week, China’s one-man Dear Leader said that the country was going to start up its own version of Build Back Better. Immediately cheered by the entire Western [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Welcome Back To The Old Normal

By |2022-05-02T20:46:23-04:00May 2nd, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Stagflation. It's a word that strikes fear in the hearts of investors, one that evokes memories - for some of us - of bell bottoms, disco, and Jimmy Carter's American malaise. The combination of weak growth and high inflation is the worst of all worlds, one that required a transformational leader and a cigar-chomping central banker to defeat the last [...]

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