Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

(Open) Interesting: Where’d All The Love Go?

By |2020-06-23T19:37:37-04:00June 23rd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For awhile there, a few weeks anyway, the 30-year US Treasury long bond had become the star of the mainstream show. Showered with its 15 minutes of fame, everyone loved how, for once, it seemed to agree with Jay Powell and the preferred narrative about the effectiveness of his technocracy. The idiocy of this attention was exposed by just how [...]

Not COVID-19, Watch For The Second Wave of GFC2

By |2020-06-23T16:51:18-04:00June 23rd, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I guess in some ways it’s a race against the clock. What the optimists are really saying is the equivalent of the old eighties neo-Keynesian notion of filling in the troughs. That’s what government spending and monetary “stimulus” intend to accomplish, to limit the downside in a bid to buy time. Time for what? The economy to heal on its [...]

Junk, Man

By |2020-06-22T17:50:20-04:00June 22nd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The lack of issuance and supply over the last almost year or so, that’s what makes the TIC data so fascinating. And relevant, if for other reasons, too. CLO issuance, according to a bunch of sources, peaked back last June. Remember that whole “recession scare” with the yield curve last summer? It wasn’t just a scare, at least not in [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 14: LI V XI II (Li versus Xi, The Rematch)

By |2020-06-22T16:29:58-04:00June 22nd, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt AlhambraTube: https://youtu.be/UTTjUGp-K-o Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/   [Emil's Summary] Econometrics? Sure. But are you familiar with the study of tasseomancy? Never given it any serious thought? Then how can you possibly understand the Chinese economy?Your podcaster shunned traditional university education and instead [...]

Swap Ween

By |2020-06-19T19:06:51-04:00June 19th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s another one of those myths that gets repeated over and over because it has never been realistically challenged. Not in any public way. The Fed says its dollar swap lines, central bank liquidity swaps as they call them today, worked beautifully. They may not use that particular word to describe the results, but you are distinctly left with that [...]

This *Isn’t* About Stock Prices

By |2020-06-18T19:28:45-04:00June 18th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the initial days and weeks of the COVID (overreaction) shutdown, layoffs and furloughs were mostly a function of that very thing. A non-economic disruption. As time has gone on, however, continued joblessness can only be a function of economic factors meaning a huge problem (deflation) that isn’t being solved by time. Because of this huge “surprise” in employment data, [...]

When Sentiment Flies

By |2020-06-17T19:12:52-04:00June 17th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

According to Germany’s ZEW, economic prospects for the intermediate future in that country (and for Europe, separate survey) haven’t been this positive since 2006. Back then you might remember the rip-roaring contributions of asset bubbles, and I don’t mean the stock market and valuations. A huge wave of credit expansion in pretty much every corner of the globe courtesy of [...]

Still TIC’ed Off In The Shadows In April

By |2020-06-17T17:10:09-04:00June 17th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On March 15, 2013, the US Treasury Department issued a request for a “large position report” (17 CFR Part 420). Any institution holding $2 billion or more of the 2% notes expiring in February 2023 (10-year maturity) had until March 21 to disclose that fact to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (faxed disclosures accepted). The repo rate for [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor – June 2020

By |2020-06-17T10:47:36-04:00June 17th, 2020|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The stock market has recovered most of its losses from the March COVID-19 induced sell-off and the enthusiasm with which stocks are being bought – and sold but mostly bought – could lead one to believe that the crisis is over, that the economy has completely or nearly completely recovered. Unfortunately, other markets do not support that notion nor does [...]