Where is the “tantrum?” If there is one, to this point it has been historically minor changes limited to the shorter end of the yield curve between the 2-year and 5-year USTs. This section of it is more influenced by what the market believes Jay Powell’s Fed will do especially now that it likely will be Jay Powell’s Fed for [...]
I do long for the day when no one cares even a tiny bit about something like this. Sadly, that day remains our very distant future because nothing has changed. This, rather than anything useful, is what everyone means when they use the word “stability” to describe these situations.For months, there had been rumors Jay Powell would be one-and-done like [...]
157.3 Will the Next Fed Chair be a Theoretical Grammarist?———Ep 157.3 Summary———The last time the Federal Reserve tapered its QE program the central bank spent HOURS and HOURS and HOURS and HOURS on determining which adjective to us. Adverbs. Dangling participles, onomatopoeia, clauses, subject and object. What was NOT discussed? Money. Credit. Collateral. ———Sponsor——— Macropiece Theater with Emil Kalinowski (a/k/a [...]
At first, it was taken as a sign of relief, of strength and the return of good fortune. So many massive ships each overloaded with containers stacked skyward above their beams were headed to the West Coast, the ports there couldn’t handle the traffic. The boats, and the massive cargoes they carried, themselves packed into a sort of wondrously fascinating [...]
157.2 The US Treasury Bond Market "Landmine" is Primed———Ep 157.2 Summary———The "landmine" has been part of each of the four global/regional dollar squeezes of the past 14 years (2007-09, 2011-12, 2014-16, 2018-20). The "landmine" is when US Treasury Bond yields decline precipitously and signal that economic potential has been seriously maimed. Where are we in 2021? ———Sponsor——— Macropiece Theater with [...]
The bond market’s verdict has already been rendered. In fact, the judgment was made even before this year’s CPIs surged to the highest they’d been in a long time. The most consistently accurate and only historically validated source for sorting and signaling inflation, low yields aren’t just skeptical in being low they are unequivocal in remaining steadfastly ultra-low.For those who [...]
The TIC data is great, it’s fantastic and wonderful if by comparison to the utterly slim pickings available elsewhere – which is practically nil. Compared to what I’d really like to know, the series leaves a ton out there. This is understandable if still unforgivable; on the one hand, the Treasury International Capital report itself predates the eurodollar system by [...]
157.1 Consumer Prices Surge Worldwide in October - Why? ———Ep 157.1 Summary———Around the world data shows consumer prices are accelerating like we haven't seen in years, even decades. Why? Is it because politicians are wantonly giving away money? Are gluttonous central bankers printing cash? Is it a supply/demand imbalance? Is this the 1970s Great Inflation? ———Sponsor——— Macropiece Theater with Emil Kalinowski [...]
Christmas came early for retailers already experiencing a boom year. This, however, creates a bit of conundrum given that producers have suffered rather than flourished despite such great fortune at the top of the supply chain. In whichever location you look at, production has been at best questionable.Why?Theories abound. The mainstream is filled with those like what’s been reported as [...]
It began all the way back during the summer. Vice President Kamala Harris was in Singapore in August hosting a gathering of business leaders. Supply issues naturally came up, and the VP warned: The stories that we are now hearing about the caution that if you want to have Christmas toys for your children it might be the time to [...]
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