Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 1: Despite Recent Debt Ceiling T-bill Relief This Whole Year Has Been Unambiguous Dollar Woes

By |2021-10-27T12:31:32-04:00October 27th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

136.1 USA Debt Ceiling Reprieve Saves Chinese, and World?———Ep 136.1 Summary———The 'debate' in the US Congress about the debt 'ceiling' prevented the US Treasury Dept. from issuing UST Bills, the ultimate risk-free asset. This put serious stress on the Chinese currency. Now, with the 'debate' tabled till December, Beijing (and the world) are safe... for now.———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke [...]

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China’s Central Bank Condition Has Consistently Told You Everything About Global (not) Inflation

By |2021-10-26T20:19:39-04:00October 26th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For several years now, we’ve been harping constantly and consistently about what’s on the PBOC’s balance sheet; or, really, what conspicuously isn’t in very specific line-item numbers. Briefly, simply, if dollars are being extended into China, as has been claimed over the years, particularly the last few, they’re going to show up on the Chinese central bank’s balance sheet. Specifically, [...]

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An Anti-Inflation Trio From Three Years Ago

By |2021-10-25T19:26:00-04:00October 25th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Do the similarities outweigh the differences? We better hope not. There is a lot about 2021 that is shaping up in the same way as 2018 had (with a splash of 2013 thrown in for disgust). Guaranteed inflation, interest rates have nowhere to go but up, and a certified rocking recovery restoring worldwide potential. So said all in the media, [...]

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What *Seems* Inflation Now Is Something Else Entirely

By |2021-10-25T17:41:17-04:00October 25th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

This is yet another one of those crucial recent developments which should contribute much clarity about the economic situation, yet is exploited in other ways (political) adding only more to the general state of economic confusion. The shelves may be empty in a lot of places around the country, leaving anyone with the impression there just aren’t enough goods. Shortage [...]

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Weekly Market Pulse: Inflation Scare!

By |2021-10-25T07:02:26-04:00October 24th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial stock averages made new all-time highs last week as bonds sold off, the 10-year Treasury note yield briefly breaking above 1.7% before a pretty good-sized rally Friday brought the yield back to 1.65%. And thus we're right back where we were at the end of March when the 10-year yield hit its high [...]

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The ‘Maestro’ Is Why Jay Powell Keeps Seeing (inflation) Ghosts

By |2021-10-22T19:29:19-04:00October 22nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

See, this is backward. And while it may seem overly pedantic, getting it right is actually a crucial insight (lack thereof) into pretty much everything. Its purpose is to maintain a different sort of money illusion (the original relates to how workers focus on nominal rather than real levels of compensation). This other money illusion relates to the hidden nature [...]

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Do Bonds Accurately Price Inflation? Since Before Any of Us Were Born

By |2021-10-22T18:15:00-04:00October 22nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Many, likely the vast majority believe that the recent wave of consumer price increases is going to stick around. It’s already painful and even if it isn’t inflation, they’re thinking, it soon will be. Maybe not 1970’s bad, not yet, at the very least something like then.The bond market doesn’t just disagree, it keeps doing so vehemently. Nothing new, bond [...]

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You Don’t Have To Take My Word For It About Eliminating QE

By |2021-10-20T19:33:04-04:00October 20th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You don’t have to take my word for it. QE doesn’t work and it never has. That’s not just my assessment, pull out any chart of interest rates for wherever gets the misfortune of having been wasted with one of these LSAP’s. If none handy, then just read what officials and central bankers write about their own programs (or those [...]

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Retracing The Yield Gap For The Unemployment Rate Isn’t The Same Thing

By |2021-10-19T19:54:13-04:00October 19th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Thomas Barkin is President and CEO of the Federal Reserve’s Fifth District branch headquartered in Richmond. Beginning the job during the tumultuous and confusing 2018 (for those wherever at the Fed), Barkin in 2021 is and has been a voting FOMC member. Whether he is judged a “hawk”, “dove”, or some other kind of feathering maniac I’d leave to the [...]

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The Curve Is Missing Something Big

By |2021-10-19T18:34:46-04:00October 19th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What would it look like if the Treasury market was forced into a cross between 2013 and 2018? I think it might be something like late 2021. Before getting to that, however, we have to get through the business of decoding the yield curve since Economics and the financial media have done such a thorough job of getting it entirely [...]

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