Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 100, Part 2: For Our Hundredth, What Else Would It Be? INFLATION

By |2021-09-23T19:37:49-04:00September 23rd, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

100.2 Why Inflation is OVERHYPED: US Consumer Prices ———Ep 100.2 Summary———Consumer prices in the US are elevated, but decelerating. They're elevated because of demand surges, supply shocks and logistics snarls - all TRANSITORY factors. Consumer prices ARE NOT elevated because of permanent, pervasive central bank or government inflationary action. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———Ep 100.2 Topics——— [...]

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All Eyes On Inventory

By |2021-09-23T19:33:50-04:00September 23rd, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You’ve heard of the virtuous circle in the economy. Risk taking leads to spending/investment/hiring, which then leads to more spending/investment/hiring. Recovery, in other words. In the old days of the 20th century, quite a lot of the circle was rounded out by the inventory cycle. Both recession and recovery would depend upon how much additional product floated up and down [...]

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 100, Part 1: For Our Hundredth, What Else Would It Be? INFLATION

By |2021-09-22T19:03:56-04:00September 22nd, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

100.1 Why Inflation is OVERHYPED: US Producer Prices ———Ep 100.1 Summary———Producer prices in the US are elevated, but decelerating. They're elevated because of demand surges, supply shocks and logistics snarls - all TRANSITORY factors. Producer prices ARE NOT elevated because of permanent, pervasive central bank or government inflationary action. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———Ep 100.1 Topics——— [...]

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Since There Is No Tantrum, Can We Taper The Dots Instead?

By |2021-09-22T18:56:14-04:00September 22nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

So much easier to just change the target, to move the goalposts. Having failed for weeks to provoke any “tantrum” to the Federal Reserve’s oncoming taper, even before today’s FOMC meeting all attention was instead simply shuffled off tapering QE and onto rate hikes. Bring the dots back! Anything to keep up the idea the Fed is a central bank [...]

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Hey Jay, Maybe Check The Swaps Before Committing to Taper

By |2021-09-21T20:11:51-04:00September 21st, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was said to be something hugely significant, truly momentous - but only until it started to misbehave all over again. This was the summer of 2013, SHIBOR Summer in China and the misunderstood, mislabeled “taper tantrum” in the US$. Consistent with the latter’s more optimistic take on the world, the 30-year swap spread turned positive for the first time [...]

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Previewing The Taper Theater

By |2021-09-21T17:47:10-04:00September 21st, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Eurodollar, not Evergrande. That wasn’t just the point of yesterday’s recall, it is the whole point of beyond fourteen years of going only the wrong way. The deflationary way. Defaults in China are nowadays a commonplace part of that trend, one which began early in 2014 with Shanghai Chaori Solar.What was significant about Chaori was this: “It was the moment [...]

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Talking To Bill About Evergrande

By |2021-09-20T19:43:00-04:00September 20th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US Treasury auctioned off $45 billion in 3-month (13w) bills this morning. Despite the Federal Reserve paying 5 bps for SOMA UST collateralized, for “some” reason the primary market’s players wanted this issue far more. The auction’s high was just 3.5 bps, its median 2.5. These are down from 4 bps and 3.5 bps, respectively, last Monday. With the [...]

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China’s Managed Decline Ain’t Ever To Be Grand(e), It’s (euro)Dollars

By |2021-09-20T18:44:53-04:00September 20th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Some wanted to call it China’s Bear Stearns, and over time it may end up being seen that way. And that would be the right way to see it. What Bear’s March 2008 demise had represented was the watershed event for the eurodollar system, the final straw which finally broke the camel’s back. In the same way, CNY's was broken [...]

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Weekly Market Pulse: Time For A Taper Tantrum?

By |2021-09-20T08:23:10-04:00September 19th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to say that it is talking about maybe reducing bond purchases sometime later this year or maybe next year or at least, someday. Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at which he'll tell us that markets have nothing to worry about because even if they taper QE, interest rates aren't [...]

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 99, Part 3: When Everyone Understands Why The Dollar Goes Up, We Celebrate Our Show’s Demise

By |2021-09-17T19:49:17-04:00September 17th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

99.3 US Dollar Gains Value - Bad News for the World  ———Ep 99.3 Summary———In 1971, US Treasury Secretary John Connally told a group of European finance ministers that the US dollar "is our currency, but your problem." Half a century later, the problem has grown bigger encompassing the whole world. A world that is short of dollars. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra [...]

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