Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 92: Frontline’s ‘Power of The Fed’ Would’ve Been Powerful Criticism Had It Not Blindly Swallowed ‘Easy Money’

By |2021-07-30T19:29:18-04:00July 30th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

92.0: What FRONTLINE got SO wrong about the Fed LIVE!———Ep 92.0 Summary———FRONTLINE critiques the Fed for showering #BigBanks, #BigBusiness and #WallStreet with easy money, which reached neither the real #economy nor the vast majority of Americans. Yes to the latter, but no-no-no-no to the former. We did a 95-minute review of this episode and explain why the Fed is not [...]

Diverging Inflation Numbers, For How Much Longer?

By |2021-07-30T19:23:00-04:00July 30th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Germany’s flash July 2021 inflation estimate came in hot yesterday, boosted mostly by comparisons to July 2020’s VAT-free situation. That country’s CPI is a robust sounding 3.8% year-over-year this month, though only 3.1% in its flash HICP terms. Despite Deutschland’s oversized contribution and influence, Eurostat reports today how for Europe as a whole there was a whole lot of little [...]

Inflation Estimates (PCE) *Totally* Overshadowed By Benchmark Income Revisions, And The (Deflationary) Implications of Them

By |2021-07-30T17:37:30-04:00July 30th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Of course inflation numbers, the PCE Deflators for June 2021, but first in the same report as those the BEA also released its various data on income and spending. In the former category, income, we’ll find a big reason why this deviation for consumer prices most likely ends up as temporary. And before we can get to that, big benchmark [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 91: Almost Perfect Example of Collateral Scramble

By |2021-07-30T10:32:09-04:00July 30th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

91: Repo Market Collateral Rumble Moving the Needle———Ep 91.0 Summary———Early-morning action in the repo market shows a musical chairs-like collateral scramble; it has the Fed's attention. But the Fed is blasé about it (i.e. 'too much cash'). Yet these collateral scrambles resemble what we saw in March 2020. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———Ep 91.0 Topics——— 01:41 [...]

Business Or Inflation Cycle?

By |2021-07-29T20:26:41-04:00July 29th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Was the GDP report good or bad? Six percent sure sounds terrific, given it wasn’t all that long ago two and a half or three was perceived a home run. As with any of these things, the ultimate judgement depends on more than single numbers because everything is relative. The fact is the BEA calculated a headline quarterly change which [...]

Leading Out From Japan

By |2021-07-28T19:14:27-04:00July 28th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Admittedly, there isn’t much economic data released in the back half of every month. So, we’re sort of stretching our gaze into the second (maybe third) tier. But in this case, it’s just by way of reinforcing much what we already know and further what’s been suspected. Over in Japan, the government’s Cabinet Office gathers surveys, cross tabulates results and [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 90: Value and Valuing Inflation

By |2021-07-28T17:24:49-04:00July 28th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

90.0: What is that thing's Value today?———Ep 90.0 Summary———Professor Sam Williamson, economic historian, explains how the value of commodities, projects and income/wealth should be properly measured across time (AND IT IS NOT WITH A CPI INDEX!). Otherwise, like a recent NY Times article, your worth may be off by a factor of 20!!!! ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— [...]

Tapering The Truth

By |2021-07-28T17:13:38-04:00July 28th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Ceremony and ritual are not just important concepts for priming and keeping faith, they are absolute essentials. There’s a reason why cult leaders make themselves appear - at every instance - indispensable while at the same time keeping their masses busy with nonsense. Can’t ever permit thinking too much lest the house of cards crash downward at the first slight [...]

Bills Down, RRP Up

By |2021-07-27T19:58:24-04:00July 27th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve has done us a solid favor by opening wide its RRP window. Quite by accident, obviously, these policymakers hardly useful monetary stewards, we now have another indication, and a more direct one (though still indirect overall), relating on the surface two seemingly very different factors. The correlation found there between T-bills and that has increased the visibility [...]

The Radically Not Inflationary ‘Shock’ Of Chinese Cracking Down

By |2021-07-27T17:04:17-04:00July 27th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We’ve spent months in US Treasury bill yields for a (very good) reason. There’s brewing trouble out there, and it’s not just caught the attention of overeager indirects bidding in UST bill auctions. The premium for those instruments is a nod toward growing collateral scarcity, a deflationary potential that is almost certainly a big part, probably the key part, behind [...]

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