Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

Survey of Salient Risks to Financial Stability

By |2023-10-23T15:09:14-04:00October 23rd, 2023|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Here is a brief summary of what is of concern to domestic and international policymakers, academics, community groups, and others. We might call these "known risks." Persistent inflation and monetary tightening Persistent or reaccelerating inflationary pressures Resilient economic outlook leading to further monetary policy tightening Volatile market conditions Entrenched expectations of higher inflation leading to higher realized inflation leading to [...]

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Weekly Market Pulse: An Ego Driven Fed

By |2023-10-22T18:25:55-04:00October 22nd, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Well, I finally got it. I've been fighting COVID for the last week and while most of my symptoms have improved, I am not 100% yet. My goal from the beginning of COVID was to avoid it, if at all possible, until it became endemic and less lethal. It seemed logical to me, a layman, that it would follow this [...]

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Weekly Market Pulse: Good News Is Good News

By |2023-10-09T07:12:39-04:00October 8th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The employment report on Friday seemed like a good one. The unemployment rate was unchanged as the economy added 336,000 jobs in September. The gains were widespread with additions in manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation, warehousing, leisure and hospitality, healthcare and education, and government. Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% for the month and 4.2% year-over-year. It was [...]

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Weekly Market Pulse: Patience Is A Virtue

By |2023-10-01T20:16:48-04:00October 1st, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Most strategic asset allocation strategies have produced negative returns over the last two years. A 60/40 allocation of Vanguard Total Stock and Vanguard Total Bond is down over 6%. John Bogle's 3-fund portfolio, a global approach that includes an allocation to Vanguard Total International is down nearly 9%. Morningstar has a diversified portfolio that includes 11 different ETFs and it's [...]

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Weekly Market Pulse: Wrong Again

By |2023-09-05T06:54:24-04:00September 4th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

There were some very smart people a year ago saying that you couldn't kill inflation without a big rise in unemployment. Last October, Larry Summers - former Treasury Secretary and President of Harvard - said we'd need a recession and an unemployment rate of 6% to kill inflation. In the summer of last year, he said we'd need 5 years [...]

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Weekly Market Pulse: A Positive Feedback Loop?

By |2023-08-14T08:40:34-04:00August 14th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The 10 year Treasury yield has been in an uptrend since the summer of 2021 which is obvious to anyone who can see. It has stalled a couple of times and moved sideways - consolidated in Wall Street technical speak - but the trend is obvious (see below). It seems only a matter of time before we break above the [...]

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I Have Questions

By |2023-07-17T07:43:30-04:00July 16th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

I spend a lot of time asking questions. I don't always have answers to these questions but I think it is critical to ask them. Think about how the consensus might be wrong or, more importantly, how you might be. Question the narrative and try to determine what's important and what's not, who you can ignore, and who merits your [...]

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Weekly Market Pulse: Correction?

By |2023-06-25T21:20:36-04:00June 25th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

It appears we have started the third correction in stocks since the bottom in October of last year. The first one was in December and saw the S&P 500 fall about 8% from peak to trough. The second one was from February into mid-March and totaled about 9%. I don't know how far this one might carry but a pullback [...]

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