Jerome Powell has said repeatedly that the Fed's goal is to get rates higher and leave them there for an extended period of time. He believes that the mistake of the 70s was that once higher rates snuffed out inflation, the Fed cut rates too quickly and the inflation returned. I think the mistake of the 70s was that, by [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun has an opinion on why the market was on a roller coaster after the Fed statement last week; There’s more than one way to calculate the 10/3 yield curve, and don’t put all you hope on a single market indicator.
The FOMC met last week and did what everyone expected them to do - raised the Fed Funds rate by 0.75%. The bond and stock markets reacted not to this action but to the commentary provided by the committee in its statement and by Chairman Jerome Powell at his post meeting press conference. The former had a new phrase, a [...]
I have often been accused over the years of being too optimistic and I will plead guilty to having a little rose-colored tint in my glasses. I am an optimist by nature and I search constantly for good things to write about. There are more than enough people out there willing to tell you the world is coming to an [...]
There's talk that the next Fed rate hike will push the economy into recession. Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun points out signs to look for before the beginning of a recession.
Is Jerome Powell the worst Federal Reserve Chairman of all time? Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun lays out the case.
Is the Fed doing more harm than good? Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun says the Fed just needs to shut up.
It’s a bear market and you expect to have volatility, but volatility is trending even higher. Steve Brennan talks with Doug Terry, Head of Alhambra Research about what factors may push the volatility envelope.
Is the Fed Changing its mind about hike, hike, hike? Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about the latest Fed headline, as well as a full slate of economic news this week and the inversion of the 10/3 yield curve.
With inflation recently hitting a high not seen since 1981, it is now apparent that the factors that drove the disinflation trend of the last four decades are coming to an end. Globalization and demographics, the two big factors that combined to hold down prices and wages for so long, are reversing, and so too is the downtrend in prices, wages, [...]
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