Weekly Market Pulse: The S&P 500 Rules Everything Around Me
The 2nd quarter is officially over and it was one of the strangest I’ve experienced in my 33 year career. To jump straight to the punchline, if you owned large cap growth stocks, you had a great quarter. If you owned almost anything else, you didn’t and you likely lost money. I don’t know when the bear market in doing [...]
3rd Quarter Secular Outlook
We've had an economic boom of investment in AI, manufacturing and infrastructure over the past 18 months. Secular trends like electrification, AI, a space based economy are real. Valuations for companies involved in equipment investment for new technology buildout are stretched. Who will be tomorrow's winners? We've had an economic boom in the US over the past 18 months. The [...]
3rd Quarter Cyclical Outlook
Growth is slowing Inflation remains sticky Dollar stays firm Interest rates have probably peaked but higher for longer Growth peaked on a quarter over quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q3 last year at 4.9%. The preferred reading is on an annual basis where growth peaked in Q4 of last year at 3.13%. Growth in Q1 was 2.88% and growth [...]
Weekly Market Pulse: The Sober Spending Of Drunken Sailors
Any great power that spends more on debt service (interest payments on the national debt) than on defense will not stay great for very long. True of Habsburg Spain, true of ancien régime France, true of the Ottoman Empire, true of the British Empire, this law is about to be put to the test by the U.S. beginning this very year. Historian [...]
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