The financial commentariat first started to worry about recession in April of 2022 when the spread between the 10-year Treasury rate and the 2-year Treasury rate turned negative - the yield curve inverted. It subsequently righted itself to positive territory until July of 2022 and has stayed inverted ever since. Since an inverted yield curve has preceded almost every recession [...]
I'm back! I took most of the month of December off, as I do every year, to do some thinking. Per the title of this essay, the purpose of these year-end musings is to gain some perspective. In the day-to-day, week-to-week, movements of the markets it is easy to forget that we are investing with a timeline measured in years, [...]
The index is down from 52.7% in November to 50.6% in December. While current activity registered a jump to 56.6% from 55.1%, the composite is being held down by employment, inventories, trade and new orders. Employment -- 50.7 in Nov to 43.3 in Dec, down 7.4% Inventories -- 55.4 in Nov to 49.6 in Dec, down 5.8% Imports -- 53.7 [...]
The employment numbers came in progressively better throughout the week. Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the US added 216,000 jobs in December. The following industries reported the largest gains: Leisure and Hospitality (Hotels, Restaurants, Gambling, Live Entertainment) -- 40,000 Health Care -- 38,000 Local Governments -- 37,000 Professional and Business Services (Accounting, Architecture, Computers, Consulting) -- [...]
Personal consumption of services is 45% of US GDP. Employment is strong and the service sector continues to be strong. S&P Global PMI report came in at an expansionary 51.4. Output rose for the 3rd straight month and at the sharpest rate since July. New orders rose at the fastest rate since June. This translated into employment clocking in at [...]
The economic backdrop today: Employment is strong Employment drives personal consumption Initial Unemployment claims dropped by 18,000 to 202,000. This is the 4th lowest number of initial unemployment claims of the year. Continuing claims dropped as well and the slope of the 4-week moving average is now negative indicating an incrementally easier environment to find a new job. Today's ADP [...]
The labor market is softening, but still strong. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or an investment outlook. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report [...]
Manufacturing regionally, nationally and globally continues to be in contraction. In line with that theme, ISM reported 47.4% this morning, the 14th straight month of contraction. Manufacturing is contracting at slower rates and export orders continue to show improvement. To date this has played out more like a slowly recovering covid hangover. The fear is weak demand signaling recession, but [...]
Case Shiller Home Price Index The annual price change for houses from Oct 2022 to Oct 2023 is 4.8%. Though the monthly price increases are slowing, the annual inflation rate will continue to rise because of the disinflation at the end of 2022. The max benefit of falling prices was Jan 2023, so expect the annual inflation rate for house [...]
Residential construction continues to strengthen as non-residential construction may have peaked. The non-residential spending is a result of the public sector which contracted in November after a huge run for the last 18 months. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any [...]
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