Bonds

Monthly Macro Monitor – August 2020

By |2020-08-20T15:33:20-04:00August 20th, 2020|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

One of the advantages we enjoy here at Alhambra is the opportunity to interact with a lot of investors. We talk to hundreds of individual investors on a monthly basis, giving us a front-row seat to everyone’s fear and greed. Economic data tells us about the past, which isn’t particularly useful for investors focused on the future. Sentiment, though, is [...]

It’s Not As Obvious, But Stocks Are Tipped More Toward ‘Deflation’, Too

By |2020-08-19T17:31:57-04:00August 19th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

You have to laugh at the absurdity of the puppet show theater. A few months ago when bond yields backed up a little bit, as they do from time to time, everyone from Bond Kings to Dollar Crash-ists to Economists to just about every writer at the Wall Street Journal and Bloomberg became fixated on yield caps (or yield curve [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 22, Part 2: Central Banks Are Dumb

By |2020-08-19T14:54:09-04:00August 19th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr   ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP   Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski   Art: https://davidparkins.com/   Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, trying to punch out of the box. Artwork by David Parkins, the thinking man’s Auguste Rodin.   ———HOW——— Learn why Eugene Fama, the Nobel [...]

Part 2 of June TIC: The Dollar Why

By |2020-08-18T20:07:58-04:00August 18th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Before getting into the why of the dollar’s stubbornly high exchange value in the face of so much “money printing”, we need to first go back and undertake a decent enough review of the guts maybe even the central focus of the global (euro)dollar system. I’ve written before that the repo market is the lender of last resort, not central [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 22, Part 1: Ben Bernanke Isn’t Dumb

By |2020-08-17T16:33:58-04:00August 17th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr   ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP   Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski   Art: https://davidparkins.com/   Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, trying to punch out of the box. Artwork by David Parkins, the thinking man's Auguste Rodin.   ———HOW——— Central bankers are [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 21, Part 3: Actually Looking in the $$ Toolkit Because Someday There’ll Be A Real One

By |2020-08-14T15:30:19-04:00August 14th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

———-WHERE———- AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3roy Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Podbean: https://bit.ly/3enSAkr Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr   ———-WHO———- Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP   Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski   Art: https://davidparkins.com/   Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski.  Artwork by David Parkins, operating with palette knives, color charts, painting palettes, tube wringers and paint rollers.     ———-HOW———- New PMI scores for [...]

You Need NIRP But Because NIRP You Then Need To Lessen NIRP; Or, Just Trust US, This Stuff Just Works

By |2020-08-13T19:29:59-04:00August 13th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Bank of Japan has been paying Japanese banks a supplement on loans they collateralize with the central bank. This program is not new, announced first during the depths of COVID earlier this year, but its growing popularity has demanded attention. In addition to this market “support”, in April BoJ added a bonus of 10 bps to each pledged loan.The [...]

Fama 2: No Inflation For Old Central Banks

By |2020-08-12T20:01:04-04:00August 12th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the core CPI in July 2020 jumped by the most (+0.62%) in almost thirty years. After having dropped month-over-month for three months in a row for the first time in its history, it has posted back to back gains the latest of which pushing the index back above its February level. Congratulations to [...]

Inflation Hysteria 2: Because…Reasons

By |2020-08-11T19:41:15-04:00August 11th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Back in July 2018, even before, we began hearing (constantly) about how the yield curve and especially the 10-year note was no longer a reliable indicator. It just couldn’t have been. Why? Jay Powell, of course. Not just the Fed Chairman but also every mainstream Economist and highlighted Bond King, all of whom were insistent that the economy was accelerating [...]

Science of Sentiment: Zooming Expectations Wonder

By |2020-08-11T15:26:12-04:00August 11th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It had been an unusually heated gathering, one marked by temper tantrums and often publicly expressed rancor. Slamming tables, undiplomatic rudeness. Europe’s leaders had been brought together by the uncomfortable even dangerous fact that the economic dislocation they’ve put their countries through is going to sustain enormously negative pressures all throughout them. What would a “united” European system do to [...]

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