When Sentiment Flies
According to Germany’s ZEW, economic prospects for the intermediate future in that country (and for Europe, separate survey) haven’t been this positive since 2006. Back then you might remember the rip-roaring contributions of asset bubbles, and I don’t mean the stock market and valuations. A huge wave of credit expansion in pretty much every corner of the globe courtesy of [...]
Still TIC’ed Off In The Shadows In April
On March 15, 2013, the US Treasury Department issued a request for a “large position report” (17 CFR Part 420). Any institution holding $2 billion or more of the 2% notes expiring in February 2023 (10-year maturity) had until March 21 to disclose that fact to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (faxed disclosures accepted). The repo rate for [...]
Monthly Macro Monitor – June 2020
The stock market has recovered most of its losses from the March COVID-19 induced sell-off and the enthusiasm with which stocks are being bought – and sold but mostly bought – could lead one to believe that the crisis is over, that the economy has completely or nearly completely recovered. Unfortunately, other markets do not support that notion nor does [...]
It’s Never What They Say, Pay Attention To How They Behave
It’s a behavioral shift, one we’ve seen before. Misunderstood because of idiocy like QE, even those who’ve undergone the change fail to appreciate the deeper meaning behind it. Not just at the firm-level, more so systemically. GFC1 had left everyone, even the best of businesses, essentially stranded fighting for their lives. Lost revenue was secondary to daily survival.Liquidity.Among the grandest [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 13: Now What?
iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa Pocketcast: https://pca.st/encarkdt Alhambra-tube: https://youtu.be/a3_txb_PhrM Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ [Emil's Summary] American books and films published in 1925 will be entering the public domain next year. Included among them will be The Great Gatsby by F. Scott Fitzgerald. Upon its release the book was met with popular indifference. And [...]
Swap Me Still
In its earliest years, the Discount Window wasn’t something to be avoided at all costs, it was nearly the whole point. In order to supply largely seasonal liquidity, the word “discount” meant banks could show up at one of the local 12 Fed branches and post collateral for an increase in their reserve balance. No one would be stuck holding [...]
We Have Reached The Silly Phase of the Bull Market
Have we entered a new bull market? Was the 35% pullback in the S&P 500 in March the fastest bear market in history? Or is this just a continuation of the bull market that started in 2009, interrupted by a rather large correction? Bull markets and bear markets are about behavior, about the human emotions of fear and greed. While [...]
A Second Against Consumer Credit And Interest ‘Stimulus’
Credit card use entails a degree of risk appreciated at the most basic level. Americans had certainly become more comfortable with debt in all its forms over the many decades since the Great Depression, but the regular employment of revolving credit was perhaps the apex of this transformation. Does any commercial package on TV today not include one or more [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 12: Mailbag
iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Google: https://shorturl.at/fpsEJ Alhambra-tube: https://youtu.be/9xDka3RtxEk Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ [Emil's Summary] Millennials may not know this, but many centuries ago mail came by bag not by vibration nor beep. Legendary figures took on the mantle of "Mail Carrier!" including: founding father Benjamin Franklin, Wells Fargo cowboys of the Pony Express, and nice guy Mr. McFeely from Mr. [...]
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