Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun responds to pundits who say recession is inevitable. Plus discussion about changes to Alhambra portfolios.
Weekly Market Pulse: Inevitable?
Inevitable adjective incapable of being avoided or evaded I heard that word a lot last week. There is now a fully formed consensus that the US, and indeed the world, now faces an inevitable recession. It can't be avoided. Central banks will have to keep hiking rates because that's the only way to kill inflation. Yes, the inflation is due [...]
Are The 2s Already Rejecting Rate Hikes?
There was still another scramble for collateral yet again this morning. Nowhere near the intensity and duration of yesterday’s more massive flux, still it was obvious enough even if of the less egregious kind to only stick around for a little over an hour. Beginning at the European open (a place where recession signals are outright compounding), the 4-week bill [...]
T-bills Targeted Target
Yesterday’s market “volatility” spilled (way) over into this morning’s trading. It ended up being a very striking example, perhaps the clearest and most alarming yet, of a scramble for collateral. The 4-week T-bill, well, the chart speaks for itself:During past scrambles, such as those last year, they didn’t look like this. They would hit, stick around for an hour, maybe [...]
Looking Back At Chaotic March Through TIC
March ended up being a pretty wild ride. Lost amidst the furor over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the month began with a couple clear “collateral days. T-bill rates along with repo fails echoed that same shortfall before the yield curve then joined the eurodollar futures curve being inverted. It really hasn’t been the same since.Looking back on it using the [...]
Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses the craziness of the latest "Free Lunch" investment, plus last week's market and the effects of the dollar, credit spreads, and commodities.
Weekly Market Pulse: TANSTAAFL
TANSTAAFL is an acronym for "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch". It has been around a long time - Rudyard Kipling used it in an essay in 1891 - but it was popularized by Robert Heinlein's 1966 book, "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress". In economics, it most often refers to tradeoffs or opportunity costs; resources are [...]
Peak Inflation (not what you think)
For once, I find myself in agreement with a mainstream article published over at Bloomberg. Notable Fed supporters without fail, this one maybe represents a change in tone. Perhaps the cheerleaders are feeling the heat and are seeking Jay Powell’s exit for him? Whatever the case, there’s truth to what’s written if only because interest rates haven’t been rising based [...]
Industrial Synchronized Demand
Are the industrial commodities starting to get a whiff of demand side rejection? Short run trends suggest that this could be the case. From copper to iron and the highest (formerly) of the high flyers, aluminum, this particular group has been exhibiting a rather synchronized setback going back to the end of March, start of April.This despite supply bottlenecks and [...]
Eurobonds Behind Euro$ #5’s Collateral Case
The bond market is allegedly populated by the “smart” set, whereas those trading equities derided as the “dumb” money (not without some truth). I often wonder if it’s either/or. The fixed income system just went through this scarcely three years ago, yet all signs and evidence point to another repeat. So, how smart can Eurobond agents really be if they’ve [...]
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