You're going to hear a lot of talk about the yield curve soon and what it means for "the" yield curve to uninvert (which isn't a real word but will get used a lot). The difference between the 10-year Treasury note yield and the 2-year Treasury note yield is about to turn positive, the 2-year note yield recently falling a [...]
Overall, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace. But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased. As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate. The time has [...]
Conventional wisdom: US growth stocks continue to dominate the US stock market. Growth stocks have outperformed value stocks for a long time and the last year of AI driven gains shows that isn't changing. US stocks have outperformed the rest of the world and that isn't going to change because we have the best companies. The dollar is strong and [...]
I can calculate the movements of the heavenly bodies but not the madness of people. - Sir Isaac Newton, upon losing a fortune on South Sea Company stock Newton's Laws of Motion An object at rest remains at rest, and an object in motion remains in motion at constant speed and in a straight line unless acted on by an [...]
What a difference a day makes! After a two-week correction of nearly 5%, the S&P 500 spent the first part of last week rallying in anticipation of a friendly Fed meeting. That Fed meeting Wednesday produced the expected, namely that a rate cut in September was likely. That pushed the S&P 500 up over 2% from the Fed meeting to [...]
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so." - Maybe Mark Twain but could be Josh Billings or someone else entirely The Great Rotation from large cap stocks to small cap and value stocks that started a few weeks ago, continued unabated last week. There's a lot [...]
There's been a pretty remarkable turnaround in markets over the last 10 days. At the end of June, market returns were dominated by large cap growth stocks. The Russell 1000 growth index was up 20.5% while the value index was up a mere 6.5%, a spread rarely seen over such a short period of time. The Russell 2000 index of [...]
Special Note On Hurricane Beryl: As thousands of people in coastal Texas remain without power after Hurricane Beryl devastated the region last week, relief groups on the ground are asking for donations to aid their efforts. Here are a few organizations that can put monetary gifts to use right now. - "Where crisis strikes, hunger follows." The U.N. World Food [...]
The economic data wasn't particularly shocking or weak but it seemed as if last week may have marked a change in the economic outlook. The 10-year Treasury note yield only fell 7 basis points on the week but that only tells part of the story. Rates rose strongly on Monday, up 15 basis points at the high of the day. [...]
The 2nd quarter is officially over and it was one of the strangest I’ve experienced in my 33 year career. To jump straight to the punchline, if you owned large cap growth stocks, you had a great quarter. If you owned almost anything else, you didn’t and you likely lost money. I don’t know when the bear market in doing [...]
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