Bonds

Leave It To Eurodollar

By |2022-06-30T17:14:09-04:00June 30th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was the laziest of arguments, saturated with desperation, too, the equivalent of waving around sophistry to answer for the painfully contradictory truth. Now that feces and fans are getting further acquainted, we have the necessary perspective to settle the matter once and for all. The matter refuses to be settled, however; I mean, it’s 2022 and we’re still arguing [...]

Eurodollar Futures Interpretation Is Everywhere

By |2022-06-29T20:06:25-04:00June 29th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Consumer confidence in Germany never really picked up all that much last year. Conflating CPIs with economic condition, this divergence proved too big of a mystery. When the German GfK, for example, perked up only a tiny bit around September and October 2021, the color of consumer prices clouded judgement and interpretation of what had always been a damning situation.From [...]

Getting Whipped Will Really Hurt

By |2022-06-28T19:59:10-04:00June 28th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve’s various branches don’t just do manufacturing surveys anymore. This is a modern economy, after all, meaning industry isn’t the same top dog as what it used to be. While still important, and still able to tear down even the global-iest synchronized of growth-y, services are the big macro enchilada. Reflecting this fact, there are now regional Fed [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Expand Your Horizons

By |2022-06-27T07:53:49-04:00June 26th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Late last year I wrote a weekly update that focused on the speculative nature of the markets. In that article, I focused on the S&P 500 because I wanted to make a point, namely that owning the S&P 500 did not absolve investment advisers of their fiduciary duty. If you intentionally make the S&P 500 - or any other index [...]

Nasty Number Five, Not Hawk Hiking CBs

By |2022-06-24T19:49:31-04:00June 24th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not recession fears, those are in the past. For much if not most (vast majority) of mainstream pundits and newsmedia alike, unlike regular folks this is all news to them (the irony, huh?) Economists and central bankers everywhere had said last year was a boom, a true inflationary inferno raging worldwide. For once, CPIs (or European HICPs) seemed to [...]

Widespread Sentiment Declines, Particularly Manufacturing New Orders

By |2022-06-23T19:48:34-04:00June 23rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s an ominous though hardly surprising development. This has been shocking for those involved. Many if not most shipping companies had convinced themselves that once Shanghai and China’s vast harbor facilities were opened back up there’d be at least a mini-boom, a surge in activity for the world (America) to make up for lost time. Container rates were widely anticipated [...]

The Biggest Risk, No Surprise, Collateral

By |2022-06-23T19:10:24-04:00June 23rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not just the 4-week T-bill rate which is defying the Fed’s illusion of control, though that’s where the incidents are most evident. The front bill is nowhere close to the official RRP “floor” which can only mean one thing: collateral shortage, a large and persistent liquidity premium. Therefore, the further under said floor, the more the competition for the [...]

The Everything Data’s (Z1) Verdict: Not Inflation, Only More Of The Same

By |2022-06-21T18:58:14-04:00June 21st, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The only thing that changed was the CPI. What distinguishes 2021-22 from the prior post-crisis period 2007-20 is merely the performance of whatever consumer price index. This latter has been called inflation, yet the data conclusively support the market verdict pricing how it never was.What data? The "everything" data, the most comprehensive financial and monetary compendium yet available: The Financial [...]

Everything Hitting The Global (eurodollar) Wall

By |2022-06-20T20:10:41-04:00June 20th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Over the weekend, Bitcoin tumbled again. Reaching an ultra-ugly low of $17,641 (before retracing back above $20k), even the self-styled premier digital “store of value” has thrown in the towel. As I wrote last week, winter isn’t coming it is here.One crucial reason why, the Japan’s Ministry of Finance reported last week how imports into that country during the tumultuous [...]

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