Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 122, Part 3: The Making Of Fed Mistakes, Volcker’s Enduring Myth

By |2021-10-15T23:02:52-04:00October 15th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

122.3 1970s stagflation? No! But NOT why you think...———Ep 122.3 Summary———"Despite some eerie echoes, the past is not the best guide to the present," writes The Economist. Jeff Snider agrees, but for entirely different reasons. Stagnation? Yes, definitely. But NOT inflation - despite the clear price increases! Wait, what?———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 122, Part 2: Certain Commodities Speak, Will Anyone Hear Them?

By |2021-10-14T19:54:34-04:00October 14th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

122.2 Commodity Prices Are Telling Us This... ———Ep 122.2 Summary———We review palladium, copper and iron ore - all metals and minerals that peaked in value in May (lumber too). Some commodities continue to rise in value, specifically energy. How do we reconcile the deflationary/disinflationary former to the inflationary latter? Also, US auto sales. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) [...]

Producer vs. Consumer Price Potential

By |2021-10-14T19:49:54-04:00October 14th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

More inflation numbers around the world, more of the same. Producer prices, this time. Beginning in the US, the annual rates remain high and reached a little higher in September 2021. Commodities have been the highest of all, up 20.47% year-over-year for another greatest increase since the mid-seventies. The PPI for final demand goods was up 11.68%, that the most [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 122, Part 1: The Dollar Myth(s)

By |2021-10-13T20:01:57-04:00October 13th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

122.1 US Dollar Outgains All! (...except for one??) ———Ep 122.1 Summary———The US dollar is rising in value against a collection of currencies (except one). It's disconfirming evidence of sustainable economic recovery; it implies strained USD-funding. And there's still that one key, stable currency - unusually stable; suspiciously stable.———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, [...]

Perfect Time To Review What Is, And What Is Not, Inflation (and why it matters so much)

By |2021-10-13T17:23:26-04:00October 13th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is costing more to live and be, so naturally people are looking for who it is they need to blame. Maybe figure out some way to stop it. You know and feel for the basics since everyone’s perceptions begin with costs of just living. This is what makes the subject of inflation so difficult, even more so in the [...]

If Dollar History Is A Guide, More Than A Growth Scare

By |2021-10-12T20:20:47-04:00October 12th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Forgotten now, overridden by the arrival of the coronavirus, Germany’s economy was already well into recession before COVID. Quite a long time before. It wasn’t an earth-shattering collapse reaching downward to an incredible depth, that became the later effect of overreacting to the pandemic. We will simply never know what that prior contraction would have looked like, and how bad [...]

The Great Eurodollar Famine: The Pendulum of Money Creation Combined With Intermediation

By |2021-10-11T19:37:50-04:00October 11th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was one of those signals which mattered more than the seemingly trivial details surrounding the affair. The name MF Global doesn’t mean very much these days, but for a time in late 2011 it came to represent outright fear. Some were even declaring it the next “Lehman.” While the “bank” did eventually fail, and the implications of it came [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Inflation Scare?

By |2021-10-11T07:46:51-04:00October 10th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Bonds sold off again last week with the yield on the 10-year Treasury closing over 1.6% for the first time since early June. The yield is now down just 16 basis points from the high of 1.76% set on March 30. But this rise in rates is at least a little different than the fall that preceded it. When nominal [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 115, Part 3: For Bonds, A Collateral Scarcity ‘Dashboard’

By |2021-10-08T20:45:48-04:00October 8th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

115.3 Seven Warning Signs to Watch in Debt Ceiling Drama ———Ep 115.3 Summary———Financial collateral is indispensable to the modern monetary system. Unfortunately the most pristine collateral, the US Treasury Bill, is in short supply because of the political debt ceiling drama. So, we identify seven warning indicators for acute collateral shortage. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the [...]

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