Sweeping tariffs and a shift away from strong dollar policy can have some of the broadest ramifications of any policies in decades, fundamentally reshaping the global trade and financial systems. There is a path by which these policies can be implemented without material adverse consequences, but it is narrow, and will require currency offset for tariffs and either gradualism or [...]
There wasn't a lot of economic news last week but it was largely as expected and seemed pretty good. Job openings rose, there was no rise in jobless claims even after the large layoffs in the government sector, and the inflation reports were better than expected. What's not to like? We didn't get any big moves in bonds or currencies [...]
Uncertainty around economic policy is near all-time highs with most of that focused on trade policy. Is the uncertainty part of President Trump’s plan? Or part of his negotiating strategy? I have no idea but the effects are obvious and negative, not just for the stock market, but for the economy as a whole. But how negative? I've been getting [...]
The meeting between President Trump and Volodymyr Zelenski last Friday dominated the news over the weekend but for investors the more important news came before that historic (or not) diplomatic faux pas (whose faux pas?). I am not an expert on the nuances of diplomacy (except to say there didn't appear to be much of it going on in that [...]
Okay, I confess. It was my fault. I decided to take a couple of days off. I took my eye off the ball and the stock market fell a quick 2% while I was relaxing, eating too much, and seeing some great art in the Holy City, Charleston, SC. I promise it won't happen again, at least until my wife [...]
Since the beginning of the year, gold is up nearly 12% while the S&P 500 is only up a little over 4%, an outcome that is feeding a lot of narratives about it's cause. There have been rumors about the Federal Reserve or the US Treasury buying gold because the US is preparing to devalue the dollar or maybe issue [...]
The stock market was having a good week until just around 10 am last Friday. Stocks rallied during the week as earnings reports were pretty good - with exceptions as always - and the economic news wasn't bad either. On earnings specifically, Q4 '24 is shaping up as the best quarter in the last three years with earnings so far [...]
By the time you read this, markets around the world will be reacting to the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on Canada and Mexico and additional tariffs on China. I don't know what exactly that reaction will be although it seems unlikely to be positive, at least initially. Regardless of the market reaction, investors need to be careful not to [...]
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. H.L. Mencken By the time you read this we'll have a new President. Well, actually, he's an old President, but whatever we think we know about him from his first term may not be much help in the second. The group of people about to take [...]
The December employment report was released last Friday and it was quite a bit better than expected. Expectations were for payrolls to rise by 160,000 on the month but instead 256,000 people found a job and started working. For reference, the 3-month average is a gain of 170,000 so there was a significant acceleration in December. The unemployment rate fell [...]
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