Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joseph Y. Calhoun discusses the Katona effect in light of last week's 10-year low consumer sentiment number and the 30-year high inflation number.
Weekly Market Pulse: Paging George Katona
Consumer sentiment hit a decade low last month, falling 6 points from an already low level. The culprit? Inflation, which we learned last week hit a 3 decade high in October. And if the founder of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is right, the next thing we'll see is an economic slowdown. George Katona was a psychologist who [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 150, Part 3: China’s Central Bank Balance Sheet’s Dollar Flash
150.3 Warning Indicator Blinks Red on PBOC Balance Sheet ———Ep 150.3 Summary———What kind of foreign assets do you own PBOC? Well, we are adding a lot of "other" right now. "Other"? Yes, "other". What is that? Don't worry about it. What do you mean, 'Don't worry about it.'? Just know that we're adding it, whatever it is - it's good. ———Sponsor———Macropiece [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 150, Part 2: Are All CPI’s The Same Thing? No and the Bond Market Tells You
150.2 History Lesson: Inflation vs. Bond Yields vs. CPI———Ep 150.1 Summary———We review the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 2000s and 2010s to study how bond yields reacted to persistent and pervasive monetary expansion, stagnation and contraction as well as how bond markets handled transitory consumer price shocks due to supply/demand imbalances. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 150, Part 1: How Bond Yields Astutely, Accurately Sort Out Past ‘Inflation’ Panics
150.1 Huge 1950s CPI-Surge was Transitory, Not Inflation ———Ep 150.1 Summary———An early-1950s US consumer buying-binge sent the Consumer Price Index soaring. Inflation!? No. It was a transitory supply/demand imbalance brought on by (geo)political factors. The bond market knew it and didn't overreact. And what about the Federal Reserve? They overreacted. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest [...]
Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun reviews good and not-so-good economic reports from last week, new highs in the markets, and the growing trend of speculation with stocks and cryptocurrencies.
Weekly Market Pulse: Divergence
Almost all the economic data released last week was better than expected. ISM manufacturing PMI, Redbook retail sales, ISM non-manufacturing PMI (an all-time high), factory orders (headline and ex-transportation), ADP employment, jobless claims (new post-COVID low), non-farm payrolls, the unemployment rate, manufacturing employment, all better than expected. There were some disappointing reports: construction spending was down 0.5%, the trade deficit [...]
Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO talks about last week's reversal in bonds yields, if there's a growth scare, what the yield curve is saying, plus reports on wages & salaries, core capital goods, and jobless claims.
Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Scare?
A couple of weeks ago the 10-year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near-term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long-term inflation expectations were and are well behaved. I wrote nearly 2000 words last week about that change in inflation expectations and I'm so glad you [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 3: Never Getting Inflation Right And The (money) Reasons Behind The Continuous Errors
136.3 1970s Inflation Then, But Not Now Because... ———Ep 136.3 Summary———A review of transcripts and recordings from the 1970s reveals that monetary and political authorities were unable to identify the source of inflation (international liquidity creation). The authorities didn't understand money in the 1970s, and they still don't. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog [...]
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