Commodities

68.3 US Treasury Auction Brings Surprisingly Bad News ———Part 3 Summary———On April 23 the 5-year US Treasury Inflation Protected Security auction resulted in LOWER inflation expectations. For years now these auctions conveyed RISING market-based inflation expectations. But now? With monetary 'printing' and fiscal 'stimulus' gone wild the market says, "Put your shirt back on." ———Sponsor——— But first, this from Eurodollar Enterprises! Friends, [...]

68.2 US Treasury Bond Futures Crossed Red Line Long Ago———Part 2 Summary———Open interest in US Treasury Long Bond futures have crossed the 800,000-line only a few times in the past quarter-century. Nothing ever good happened in markets or the world economy when that happened. Where are they today? Almost 1.2 million. Why, who and when? ———Sponsor——— But first, this from Eurodollar [...]

68.1 This is the Hedge Fund Trade that Blew Up in 2020———Part 1 Summary———The rise and fall of an arbitrage trade by hedge funds known as the Treasury cash-futures basis trade. That was the focus of an excellent research paper by two government researchers. But there's just one problem. They don't ask what caused the rise of the basis trade [...]

67.3 There are 6 (to 20?!) Liens on each US Treasury———Part 3 Summary———US Treasury Securities are the financial system's best collateral. But quantitative easing pulls Treasuries out of the system! In response market participants are 'forced' to repledge the SAME security more and more and more and more and more and more (and more and more and more and more [...]

67.2 When is government debt too much debt?———Part 2 Summary———When public debt rises to around 90% of GDP economic growth falls by 1% each year. A review of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff's study and a look at global debt levels in 2008, 2011 and 2020. ———See It———– Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———Ep 67.2 Topics——— 00:05 When government [...]

67.1 US Stimulus Fails: Bush, Obama, Trump (& Biden?!)———Part 1 Summary———Government stimulus seems to work sometimes (e.g. US recessions after WW2). Other times it clearly fails: 1970s USSR, 1980s S. America and Africa, 1990s Japan, and USA post-2008. Presidents Bush (ECA 2008), Obama (ARRA 2009) and Trump (TCJA 2017) tried and failed. Will Biden be any different? ———See It———– Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra [...]