Commodities

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 6: Shocking (to some) Fragility

By |2020-05-04T15:30:05-04:00May 4th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Google-cast: https://shorturl.at/fpsEJ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY   Alhambra-tube: below   SUMMARY  Hubris. It will get us to the stars but seduce us into believing we belong there. Today, monetary authorities suffer it, believing they can manage the nonlinearity, emergence, spontaneous order, adaptation and feedback loops of the unraveling. DESCRIPTION In 1929 a plague struck Florida resulting in an overwhelming government response. [...]

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 5: Myths

By |2020-04-27T18:20:45-04:00April 27th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

CHANNELS: iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Google Podcasts: https://shorturl.at/fpsEJ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Emil-Tube: https://youtu.be/yqmVom5lq58 Alhambra-Tube: below   SUMMARY:  Ancient myths, like the Minotaur of Crete, Monkey King or Odin, are not taken seriously.  But modern myths, like the Greenspan Put, the Bank of Japan buying stocks or bond kings selling Treasuries, not only are taken seriously, but acted upon.   KEYWORDS: Eurodollar University, Jeff Snider, [...]

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COT Black: No Love For Super-Secret Models

By |2020-04-27T18:13:03-04:00April 27th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

As I’ve said, it is a threefold failure of statistical models. The first being those which showed the economy was in good to great shape at the start of this thing. Widely used and even more widely cited, thanks to Jay Powell and his 2019 rate cuts plus “repo” operations the calculations suggested the system was robust.Because of this set [...]

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What Was Monday’s Negative Oil, And Why It Was Overshadowed On Tuesday

By |2020-04-22T11:59:46-04:00April 22nd, 2020|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

A crucial component of many commodity futures markets is a concept called roll yield. It relates to the shape of the curve and therefore how the market is discounting the three fundamental factors of supply, demand, and financing. Contango versus backwardation, there’s a lot to consider and even more at stake.Back in late October 2018, the WTI curve flipped to [...]

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OPEC + Reality

By |2020-04-22T13:54:52-04:00April 21st, 2020|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Two weeks ago, OPEC+ and the US came to a deal to cut crude oil production. President Trump hailed the deal, saying it would save “hundreds of thousands” of oil patch jobs. The Texas Railroad Commission meets today to “consider” a cut in oil production in the Lone Star state. Meanwhile, the market has made all this high-level negotiating irrelevant, [...]

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What Do China’s LPR Cut & Oil Chaos Share In Common?

By |2020-04-20T16:39:01-04:00April 20th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the second time this year, the PBOC has today affirmed Chinese banks are offering a lower benchmark loan rate. The Loan Prime Rate was reformed last August just in time for the monetary authorities in China to make it seem like they are being removed from the decisions. And in time for rate cuts to begin, too. What is [...]

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 4: Oil, Oil, Oil

By |2020-04-20T16:18:24-04:00April 20th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

  The debate over the shape of the recovery, "V" or "L", which might emerge following the dislocation and global contraction. What clues can we find?   1. Domestic Data clues (The Two Easiest Dots Anyone Will Ever Have To Connect) "Deprive any animal of oxygen and watch how it doesn’t move very fast." How the labor force changed [...]

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A Crude Future View From The Crude Curve

By |2020-04-14T19:02:52-04:00April 14th, 2020|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Concerns about the economy have overtaken concerns about the virus. That’s the conclusion reached by a series of polls conducted at fivethirtyeight.com. According to their surveys, Americans remain very concerned about the pandemic to start with. Thirty-eight percent say that, up from about 18% back at the beginning of March.In terms of the economy, 57% are now “very concerned.” That’s [...]

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The Long-Term Implications of COVID-19

By |2020-04-15T16:33:43-04:00April 13th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Financial Planning, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

With volatility in the stock market ebbing somewhat or at least going in a more comfortable direction – 1000 point up-days feel a lot better than 1000 point down-days – it seems a good time to start pondering the long-term implications of the virus and shutdown. All of us have been so focused on the short term – is this [...]

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The Dichotomy of Market Sentiment

By |2020-04-06T14:43:44-04:00April 6th, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Financial Planning, Markets, Real Estate, Special Reports, Stocks|

It doesn’t take much effort to find bearish sentiment about stocks or the economy right now. CNN’s Fear & Greed Index, an amalgam of seven discrete market sentiment indicators, is still in the “Extreme Fear” zone. Generally, market bottoms are associated with extreme fear while tops are associated with extreme greed. And it generally works; the gauge was pegged in [...]

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