Currencies

Weekly Market Pulse: Be Careful What You Wish For

By |2024-04-29T07:35:19-04:00April 28th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

Be careful what you wish for lest it come true! - Various of Aesop's Fables Shinzo Abe was elected to a second term as Japanese Prime Minister in 2012 and launched his three arrows plan to revive the Japanese economy. The three arrows were: Ultra loose monetary policy, a de facto policy to weaken the Yen Fiscal policy - increased [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Situation Normal

By |2024-04-22T07:37:32-04:00April 21st, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

Is this normal? I haven't made any money in like two years. - Question from a recent acquaintance upon hearing what I do for a living Let's get this out of the way quickly. The answer to his question is yes, this is painfully normal. When you have a bear market - or you have two in four years like [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Are Higher Interest Rates Good For The Economy?

By |2024-04-15T07:38:25-04:00April 15th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Interest rates surged last week on the back of a hotter-than-expected inflation report that wasn't actually that bad (see below). Not that my - or your - opinion about these things matters all that much to the market. In the short run, all that matters is what the majority believes is the truth. What they believed last week was that [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: A New Paradigm?

By |2024-04-07T23:33:09-04:00April 7th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

Markets year to date have been a lot more interesting in the details than the headlines you get in the financial media. The narrative has focused almost exclusively on Artificial Intelligence and the stocks benefitting from it. Large cap growth stocks - especially in the IT and Communications sectors - have garnered all the attention. But beneath the surface markets [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Don’t Just Do Something, Sit There

By |2024-04-01T07:39:20-04:00March 31st, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

The first quarter of 2024 is in the books and the US economy and markets continue to defy expectations, which coming into this year were that growth and inflation would both moderate and the Fed would be able (or forced, depending on how much things slowed) to cut interest rates 0.25% as many as six times this year. In fact, [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Rational Exuberance?

By |2024-03-25T05:41:54-04:00March 24th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

Special Note: I'm in Miami this week, a mix of business and personal. I lived here for 30 years and we raised our family here but we moved to South Carolina a little over 3 years ago because we were tired of the traffic and, more than that, the irritability that comes with so many people crammed into such a [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: An Economic Overview

By |2024-03-18T07:43:45-04:00March 17th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

Over the last two years, the evolution of the US economy has been driven by a return to “normal”. The distortions of the response to COVID had a profound impact on the economy that I believe will persist for many years. The change in cash levels at the household level were large and have proved more persistent than most expected. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Dare To Be Different

By |2024-03-11T08:01:35-04:00March 10th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. Wayne Gretzky I took my wife to dinner Saturday night at a local, boutique hotel. The Willcox Hotel was established in the late 19th century to cater to the Winter Colony of wealthy northerners who spent their winters in South Carolina. Today it still caters to [...]

Market Morsel: Expectations Are Not Predictions

By |2024-03-09T09:16:12-05:00March 8th, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Commodities, Currencies, Markets|

Longer term, I think there are more significant reasons to expect a weaker dollar, starting with our politicians’ (of both parties) newfound infatuation with industrial policy. Government-directed investment may create activity but long-lasting benefits have, in the past, proved quite elusive. The real problem with our government deficits and debt isn’t the debt itself but rather what the borrowed money [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Are We There Yet?

By |2024-03-04T12:11:45-05:00March 3rd, 2024|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Newsletter, Real Estate, Stocks|

How far can this rally go? Should we be locking in some gains? That's a paraphrase of questions I've been getting from clients recently. It does seem as if the stock market goes up every day and with all the ups and downs of the last few years, it is natural to wonder if we're about to get another bout [...]

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