Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses the craziness of the latest "Free Lunch" investment, plus last week's market and the effects of the dollar, credit spreads, and commodities.
Weekly Market Pulse: TANSTAAFL
TANSTAAFL is an acronym for "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch". It has been around a long time - Rudyard Kipling used it in an essay in 1891 - but it was popularized by Robert Heinlein's 1966 book, "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress". In economics, it most often refers to tradeoffs or opportunity costs; resources are [...]
Crude Contradictions Therefore Uncertainty And Big Volatility
This one took some real, well, talent. It was late morning on April 11, the crude oil market was in some distress. The price was falling faster, already down sharply over just the preceding two weeks. Going from $115 per barrel to suddenly less than $95, there was some real fear there.But what really caught my attention was the flattening [...]
Synchronizing Chinese Prices (and consequences)
It isn’t just the vast difference between Chinese consumer prices and those in the US or Europe, China’s CPI has been categorically distinct from China’s PPI, too. That distance hints at the real problem which the whole is just now beginning to confront, having been lulled into an inflationary illusion made up from all these things.To start with, yesterday China’s [...]
Peak Inflation (not what you think)
For once, I find myself in agreement with a mainstream article published over at Bloomberg. Notable Fed supporters without fail, this one maybe represents a change in tone. Perhaps the cheerleaders are feeling the heat and are seeking Jay Powell’s exit for him? Whatever the case, there’s truth to what’s written if only because interest rates haven’t been rising based [...]
Industrial Synchronized Demand
Are the industrial commodities starting to get a whiff of demand side rejection? Short run trends suggest that this could be the case. From copper to iron and the highest (formerly) of the high flyers, aluminum, this particular group has been exhibiting a rather synchronized setback going back to the end of March, start of April.This despite supply bottlenecks and [...]
Eurobonds Behind Euro$ #5’s Collateral Case
The bond market is allegedly populated by the “smart” set, whereas those trading equities derided as the “dumb” money (not without some truth). I often wonder if it’s either/or. The fixed income system just went through this scarcely three years ago, yet all signs and evidence point to another repeat. So, how smart can Eurobond agents really be if they’ve [...]
Neither Confusing Nor Surprising: Q1’s Worst Productivity Ever, April Decline In Employed
Maybe last Friday’s pretty awful payroll report shouldn’t have been surprising; though, to be fair, just calling it awful will be surprising to most people. Confusion surrounds the figures for good reason, though there truly is no reason for the misunderstanding itself. Apart from Economists and “central bankers” who’d rather everyone look elsewhere for the real problem. The Establishment Survey [...]
Why CNY DOWN = BAD (Part 3) For Everyone
This is basically a rhetorical question drawn from a generally rhetorical exercise. We’ll never know for sure, this is about China, after all. Transparency is a Western obsession and a curse for the committed Communists. Particularly when the Party of “Science” starts to lose control of the situation when such a possibility has been treated as pure blasphemy.Did the Chinese [...]
Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Real interest rates have turned positive for the first time in 2 years. Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun describes two big implications for investors. <iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/5fhSGIWC4TA" title="YouTube video player" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen></iframe>
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