Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun says the cure for high prices is high prices. He looks at current supply & demand, the S&P 500, bonds, commodities, and what investors should consider right now.
Weekly Market Pulse: The Cure For High Prices
There's an old Wall Street maxim that the cure for high commodity prices is high commodity prices. As prices rise, two things will generally limit the scope of the increase. Demand will wane as consumers just use less or find substitutes. Supply will also increase as the companies that extract these raw materials open new mines, grow more crops, or [...]
Hard Data And Hard Truths Outside the Laundromat
Was this taking it a little too far, a little too obvious? Central bankers, since they aren’t real central bankers, their entire job is to project confidence. We get that. No matter what happens along the way, you can be sure policymakers aren’t going to ever let on in public they’re concerned. Think the famous scene in the Naked Gun [...]
Another Unnecessary Trip To The Laundry
It was likely inevitable, broad economic commentary sifting into the laundry yet again. With alarming regularity, every couple of years the idea and the term “decoupling” rears its filthy head as major global economies seem to diverge. They don’t, though, merely an illusion, a trick due mostly to differences in timing.It was Mohamed El-Erian of PIMCO all the way back [...]
Long-end Inversion *Does* Indicate Recession Risks Are Actually Elevated
What can we make of the fact the US Treasury yield curve inverted between the 7-year and 10-year maturities first? It only took a few more days for more of the curve to bend upside-down, yet that just means the whole middle part is where the bad vibes are congregated. Does this somehow disqualify what would otherwise be a clear [...]
The Dead Horse Bill Rides In On
I know this gets to be like beating a dead horse. It’s a topic I keep going back to over and over again because, frankly, it absolutely deserves the constant focus. For one thing, you’ll never, ever hear this out of any so-called monetary official despite the fact that history has repeatedly and conclusively established collateral is itself currency and [...]
Fed Already Denying Demand Destruction Which May Already Be Showing Up
There was some notable grumbling in the months leading up to it, but with the yield curve inverting in August 2019 at the 2s10s junctures, the only part the public has been led to believe is worth noticing, it unleashed a tidal wave of denials. They were weird and obviously desperate, too, because Jay Powell’s Fed had already conducted its [...]
*The* Monetary Answer: Undoing The Biggest Money Mistake of the Past
The second most-often question I get asked is, OK, smart guy, since you say the current eurodollar system is irrevocably broken, what do we do about it? [This comes right after the most popular question, um, what is a eurodollar?] I typically avoid answering for two reasons. First, since hardly anyone is ready for the first question, it is somewhat [...]
Inversion Is The Real March Madness, Just Don’t Take It Literally
With such low levels of self-awareness, it isn’t surprising that the FOMC’s members continue to pour gasoline on the already-blazing curve fire. March Madness is supposed to be on the courts of college basketball, instead it is playing out more vividly across all financial markets. One reason why is that policymakers at the Fed really still believe, even after so [...]
It Wouldn’t Be TIC Without So Much Other
With the Fed (sadly) taking center stage last week, and market rejections of its rate hikes at the forefront, lost in the drama was January 2022 TIC. Understandable, given all its misunderstood numbers are two months behind at their release. There were some interesting developments regardless, and a couple of longer run parts that deserve some attention.Picking up where TIC [...]
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