Currencies

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 122, Part 1: The Dollar Myth(s)

By |2021-10-13T20:01:57-04:00October 13th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

122.1 US Dollar Outgains All! (...except for one??) ———Ep 122.1 Summary———The US dollar is rising in value against a collection of currencies (except one). It's disconfirming evidence of sustainable economic recovery; it implies strained USD-funding. And there's still that one key, stable currency - unusually stable; suspiciously stable.———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog posts, [...]

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Inflating Chinese Trade

By |2021-10-13T19:45:45-04:00October 13th, 2021|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There was never really any answer given by the Chinese Communists for why their own export data diverged so much from other import estimates gathered by its largest trading partners. Ostensibly different sides of the same thing, it’s not like anyone asked Xi Jinping to weigh in; they report what numbers they have and consider them authoritative.However, the United States’ [...]

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Perfect Time To Review What Is, And What Is Not, Inflation (and why it matters so much)

By |2021-10-13T17:23:26-04:00October 13th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is costing more to live and be, so naturally people are looking for who it is they need to blame. Maybe figure out some way to stop it. You know and feel for the basics since everyone’s perceptions begin with costs of just living. This is what makes the subject of inflation so difficult, even more so in the [...]

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If Dollar History Is A Guide, More Than A Growth Scare

By |2021-10-12T20:20:47-04:00October 12th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Forgotten now, overridden by the arrival of the coronavirus, Germany’s economy was already well into recession before COVID. Quite a long time before. It wasn’t an earth-shattering collapse reaching downward to an incredible depth, that became the later effect of overreacting to the pandemic. We will simply never know what that prior contraction would have looked like, and how bad [...]

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Taper Math, Lazy Labor Slander

By |2021-10-12T17:59:30-04:00October 12th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The number of Job Openings for the month of July were revised upward, the BLS now thinking there had been more than 11 million of them during that month. Companies seem to be desperate for workers, at least judging by this one measure. The latest estimate for August 2021 came in well short of either the revised figure (11.1 million) [...]

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The Great Eurodollar Famine: The Pendulum of Money Creation Combined With Intermediation

By |2021-10-11T19:37:50-04:00October 11th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was one of those signals which mattered more than the seemingly trivial details surrounding the affair. The name MF Global doesn’t mean very much these days, but for a time in late 2011 it came to represent outright fear. Some were even declaring it the next “Lehman.” While the “bank” did eventually fail, and the implications of it came [...]

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Weekly Market Pulse: Inflation Scare?

By |2021-10-11T07:46:51-04:00October 10th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Bonds sold off again last week with the yield on the 10-year Treasury closing over 1.6% for the first time since early June. The yield is now down just 16 basis points from the high of 1.76% set on March 30. But this rise in rates is at least a little different than the fall that preceded it. When nominal [...]

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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 115, Part 3: For Bonds, A Collateral Scarcity ‘Dashboard’

By |2021-10-08T20:45:48-04:00October 8th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

115.3 Seven Warning Signs to Watch in Debt Ceiling Drama ———Ep 115.3 Summary———Financial collateral is indispensable to the modern monetary system. Unfortunately the most pristine collateral, the US Treasury Bill, is in short supply because of the political debt ceiling drama. So, we identify seven warning indicators for acute collateral shortage. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the [...]

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Until This Changes, Forget Inflation: Banks Bought Epic Amounts of Safe, Liquid Assets in H1 ’21

By |2021-10-08T20:39:23-04:00October 8th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The first half of 2021 was inundated with government helicopters, more QE’s, and then CPI’s put up with guarantees the “inflation” was going to continue for a long time. Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan’s often hapless CEO, proudly declared US Treasuries beyond the touch of any 10-foot pole. With the economy on fire, he “reasoned”, who would ever want safe and [...]

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