The second estimate for second quarter 2021 GDP didn’t change much, or anything. However, coincident with this “expenditure side” data release the BEA also completed its full preliminary assessments of the “income side.” GDI, in other words.What’s interesting on this other side of the output ledger is something called Net Operating Surplus (NOS). And it is NOS which frustratingly takes [...]
Though I’d like to say it was because of some inside connection, or even clairvoyance, it was just random coincidence. I wrote on Monday of the updated sordid details behind SOFR’s unsuitability and largely the rejection of it in favor of keeping LIBOR (or maybe adopting something else). It’s not that the government’s handpicked replacement won’t work, it can’t work. [...]
96.1 The Fed Didn't Know (or care?) about Nixon's Shock ———Ep 96.1 Summary———What did the Federal Reserve think about gold and the Nixon Shock in 1971? According to the transcripts they didn't think much about gold, neither pre- nor post-announcement. The Fed did not see the move as a release from its 'golden fetters' so as to dominate the monetary [...]
The incidences of what’s downright bizarre have curiously become more frequent. Sign of the times. Pick your realm or timetable, there’s so much going wrong while completely disconnected from the “official” description of, or explanation for, whatever. Along these lines, did the US VP just warn America’s children from Singapore that Santa Claus’ legendary trade will be delayed, perhaps canceled?Summer [...]
It was one of those little things that really shouldn’t have made any difference whatsoever, an interesting if trivial little nugget left behind for only obsessive scholars to care any about. Late in the morning of February 24, 2021, Fedwire shutdown. The fact a couple hours inactive snowballed into something bigger, we wondered if this would end up being indicative [...]
The recovery, or reflation, was sort of sailing along until suddenly it wasn’t. At least that was the impression anyone would’ve gotten from pretty much every mainstream source. The reality of the (global) economy’s rebound from last year’s recession was a touch more nuanced, having actually struggled quite a lot between Uncle Sam’s Helicopter #1 and #2; the hadn’t begun [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses last week's uptrend in the dollar, the falling growth cycle in the economy, interest rates, and gold.
Slowdown, yes, but by how much? The inflation argument has been forced to change yet again after having been put together by expectations for a “red hot” economy to stay red hot for a prolonged period. That’s no longer in the data, as even the most robust of indications – such as sentiment – have clearly cooled off. What’s left, [...]
To go back only to last November, lost amidst the elections and then understandably overwhelmed by vaccine euphoria, the SOFR saga took an expected turn. It was predictable especially given the realities of the situation behind this unforced string of errors. Central bankers and their Economists are, we’re constantly told, the best and brightest, these most capable of monetary stewards [...]
This week marks a change in our economic environment or at least our perception of it. Last year, post-COVID onset, we characterized the environment as one marked by a falling dollar and improving growth. To be exact, that is the environment the markets reflected; interest rates were rising, the yield curve was steepening and the dollar was falling. That changed [...]
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