What is the state of the US economy? When will this long-anticipated recession finally arrive? And when it does, what does it mean for investors? Those are the questions everyone is asking and the answers are, well, hard. Despite years - decades, centuries? - of research, there is no accurate way I know of to predict the timing or depth [...]
I sit down every week to write these updates and sometimes it is a struggle to find something - anything - worth writing about. Sure, there's always market "news" so I can find something to fill the page and I hope you find it interesting but the fact is that I don't think any investor - as opposed to trader [...]
One of the toughest things about navigating this bear market and the widely anticipated coming recession is that we've had to differentiate between real and nominal economic and market variables like nothing in recent decades. There are very few market commentators today who have navigated an inflationary environment like the current one. I haven't either, of course, which is why [...]
The first quarter has come to a close and things have changed a lot...and not very much at all. Expectations coming into the year were that rates would peak in the spring at around 5% and then fall in the second half of the year to about 4.5%. That was the highest probability outcome according to the futures markets. Of [...]
There has been a lot of angst over the last couple of weeks about a potential banking crisis. There have been 4 failures so far: Silvergate, Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and Credit Suisse. The first of these hasn't been mentioned much because it was primarily associated with lending in the crypto market and, as far as I know, there [...]
A bank's assets triple over a few years when interest rates are low. The bank invests those assets in long-term, higher-yielding municipal bonds with little credit risk. Inflation flares up and interest rates rise, reducing the value of the municipal bonds and funding dries up. Regulators become concerned that the failure of this bank could damage public confidence in the [...]
Last week started with investors focused on Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress and any hints about future monetary policy. During the course of two days of testimony, which was deemed more hawkish than expected, the market priced in another rate hike and pushed out the possibility of a rate cut all the way to January 2024. The week ended with [...]
With the 1-year Treasury bill paying 5%, why would anyone take the risk of owning stocks? - Everyone It is a good question and I can't tell you what investors will do this year or how stocks will perform, but history says it isn't the level of rates that matters for stock returns. Believe it or not, it isn't even [...]
I think everyone can agree that stocks and bonds sold off last year because interest rates rose. You might get some argument about why rates rose but the fact they did is sufficient to explain the drop in stocks and bonds. It doesn't matter if you think rates went up because the Fed raised their target rate on Fed funds [...]
The hardest thing about investing is the patience it requires. Markets can and do go through long periods of stagnation that test every investor's commitment to their strategy. The last year has been a tough one for investors but the frustration actually extends back further than just 2022. The total return of the S&P 500 since June 1, 2021 is [...]
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