Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about last week's surprising market reaction to the unemployment numbers and why it's important to study the bond market.
Weekly Market Pulse: Windshield Investing
The economic slowdown we've been writing about for months officially arrived last Friday in the form of a particularly weak employment report. The number of new jobs created last month - or at least the WAG the BLS makes at such things on a monthly basis - was a mere 235,000 or roughly a cool half-million less than expected by [...]
Just In Time For Labor Day: It’s Not Payrolls Missing The Mark By Such A Wide Margin
It was a highly curious change in the shape of the labor force. Beginning October 2015 and lasting until March 2016, for six months Americans came flooding back into the labor market. Or, so they said. When the BLS’s various surveyors working on the Current Population Survey (known as the Household Survey) came calling for answers each month, all of [...]
China, Australia, and The European Way Into Reverse Repo
We are going to start here with Europe before heading to Australia and then getting to China – and then currency. Why the ECB? It is going through the same pangs of dissatisfaction as its cousin the Federal Reserve had last summer. Like the Fed in 2020, Europe’s central bank in 2021 has climbed to the end of its grand [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 97: No Tapering *Our* Tantrum
97.0 Taper (but no) Tantrum! Why not? ———Ep 97.0 Summary———Jay Powell announced his central bank is satisfied (enough) with the economy's direction. Thus, the Fed will soon be 'tapering'; lessening the 'monetary stimulus'. What did bond-money markets say? Did they have a tantrum? No, because they don't believe what Jay believes. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———Ep [...]
Yes And No Taper To Labor (and inflation)
It doesn’t really make much sense, does it? If you stop and think about it for more than a quick second, this notion of a labor shortage doesn’t get past the smell test. The economy overall is, we hear, booming. Really booming. And it’s booming in a way that has the labor market healing far faster than thought not long [...]
Not Black Mouth To Bad Mouth The Global Causes of Transitory Inflation
Apparently, analysts were shocked when the Conference Board reported earlier today that its measure of consumer confidence, its own bread and butter, in the name, after all, dropped by a rather substantial eleven-plus points in August. And that was on top of a four-point downward revision to July. The new level of 113.8 compares to average expectations for ~124.0. Therefore, [...]
From The Blackest of Mouths: China’s (deflationary) Slowdown Picks (way) Up
At great risk of upsetting China’s army of censors, I’m going to “slander” the Chinese economy anyway. Were I a comrade within that particular nation, I’d now get labeled a “black mouth” spreading misinformation in the form of actual up-to-date data published by the same Communist government fearing its spread. Rate of change in the economy goes down, rate of [...]
Finally, QuEstioning ‘Easy Money’
A fascinating and useful bit of economic research was put forward just last month by Britain’s House of Lords (and thanks to Greg for digging it up). That body’s Economic Affairs Committee heard detailed testimony on the subject of Quantitative Easing, commonly known as QE. From the title of the report prepared in advance of the witnesses presenting their opinions [...]
China’s Free ‘Statement’ About Black Mouth Taper Without Tantrum
Contrary to the romanticized version of The Revolution, communists and Communists alike are almost always from the upper stretches of society. Mostly students from mainly affluent families, such as what had formed the basis of Castro’s takeover of Cuba, pumped full of stylized academia they seek to idealize an imperfect world in order to impose upon our messy humanity. Given [...]
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