Hold all the congratulations. Jay Powell is, with a huge assist from the financial media, trying to pre-empt what comes next by taking a premature victory lap. The Fed isn’t just your central bank it is your friend. The amount of pure propaganda being put out lately is understandable if still disgusting. March was a good month to include [...]
What’s going on right now in the global economy is mostly the first of two pieces. Waves, if you like. The economic shutdown is an artificial dislocation, a non-economic factor that is interrupting regular activity and business for non-economic reasons. Because it is near-total in most places, this first piece is going to produce ridiculous numbers across all the economic [...]
In February of 2020, the S&P 500 made a new all-time high of nearly 3,400 points. Then the selloff began that would see an intraday low below 2,200 points. That is a 35 percent loss. But the market has since rebounded recovering to 2,846 points as I write this. This represents an almost 30 percent gain from the low and [...]
Concerns about the economy have overtaken concerns about the virus. That’s the conclusion reached by a series of polls conducted at fivethirtyeight.com. According to their surveys, Americans remain very concerned about the pandemic to start with. Thirty-eight percent say that, up from about 18% back at the beginning of March.In terms of the economy, 57% are now “very concerned.” That’s [...]
It’s nothing more than pedigree, having little to do with actual performance. Central bankers are given a level of respect and even admiration suited only to their job title. As such, they travel the world as honored guests to fulfill the insatiable demand for their takes on essential matters no matter how far off the mark.Only rarely is there occasion [...]
An internal combustion engine that is leaking oil presents a difficult dilemma. In most cases, the leak itself is obscured if not completely hidden. You can only tell that there’s a problem because of secondary signs and observations.If you find dark stains underneath your car, for example, or if your engine smells of thick, bitter unpleasantness, you’d be wise to [...]
With volatility in the stock market ebbing somewhat or at least going in a more comfortable direction – 1000 point up-days feel a lot better than 1000 point down-days – it seems a good time to start pondering the long-term implications of the virus and shutdown. All of us have been so focused on the short term – is this [...]
Another day, another new Federal Reserve “bailout.” As these things go by, quickly, the details become less important. What is the central bank doing today? Does it really matter?For me, twice was enough. All the way back in 2010 I had expected other people to react as I did to QE2. If you have to do it twice, it doesn’t [...]
Way to go, fellas. The FOMC minutes for the crucial March 2020 meeting further make a mockery of everything the central bank should stand for. Nowadays, the Federal Reserve is thought about in terms of its inflation and employment mandates. Nothing whatsoever to do with the monetary system, at least not directly. That’s the way they want it; officials can’t [...]
On Sunday, Argentina’s government announced it was postponing payment on any domestically-issued debt instruments denominated in foreign currencies. That means dollars, just not Eurobonds. At least not yet. In response, ratings agencies such as Fitch declared the maneuver a distressed debt exchange.In other words, technically a default.Though this move was expected, still you have to appreciate the sensitivity. Argentina may [...]
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