Headline CPI came in at 3.12% in November, that's .11% lower than October. From September to October the headline dropped .46%. For the year, we've averaged a monthly drop of .29%. So the pace of disinflation is slowing. Additionally, YOY changes in prices are still higher than June, so we've made no progress in the 2nd half of the year. [...]
It seems like we just rang in the new year and here we are almost at the end of 2023. My dad told me the older I got, the faster things would go, and he wasn’t wrong. So, with the time left before the end of the year, there are some financial matters you need to attend to before you [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun explains why Alhambra still isn't invested in the S&P 500.
Note: This will be my last commentary this year. I plan to spend December thinking about next year and spending some much-needed time with family. Here's wishing you all a Happy Holiday season. Joe Calhoun Two years ago, I wrote a weekly commentary titled Who's The Sucker, in which I made the case that the S&P 500 was not a [...]
After considering all the data this week, the GDPNow estimate is 1.2% growth. This is down from the initial estimate of 2.3% on Oct 27th and down from 2.1% at the end of last week. The big dial mover was today's ISM report. Specifically the report had negative repercussions for goods consumption, business equipment investment and goods exports. Rates have [...]
This was a very positive report. The consumer is showing no signs of pulling back or needing to pull back in the near term, buoying GDP and GDP expectations. Interest rates float higher on the news. A quick comment on market dynamics and reactions to releases such as this one. First, everything is relative to expectations. And for a report [...]
We have a lot to be thankful for here in the US of A. It is sometimes hard to remember that while being constantly bombarded by negative news, about the economy and the country more generally. I don't like to comment about politics - I have to watch my blood pressure these days - so I'll stick to economics and [...]
Stocks, REITs, and bonds all rallied last week on the back of what was interpreted as good news on inflation. The CPI report was better than expected, the overall level flat from September to October. Core inflation, less food and energy, was also better than expected at up 0.2%. Producer prices, reported the day after CPI were even better, coming [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses investor fear over debt, deficit, and interest expense.
For the first time since March we are seeing a positive correlation between bond yields and reverse repos sold by the Fed. The change started during the last week of October and has continued throughout November. The correlation in March coincided with bank failures, mainly Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. In between March and the end of October, the [...]
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