Global Growth Recession risks are low and growth should improve in 2016. Excess supply is especially apparent in the raw materials/commodities sectors. This state of overcapacity/supply and a strong dollar combined from 2014-2015 to create an environment of falling prices and sluggish growth in global manufacturing. The services sector continues to perform well. Continued expansion in the US coupled with a recovering [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard – 11/6/15 to 11/20/15 The incoming economic data continues to disappoint. The Citigroup Economic Surprise index set a record this year for the length of time it stayed in the negative column (data less than expected) of over 200 consecutive days. Even in the depths of the Great Recession we never had more than 100 consecutive days [...]
Top News Headlines 1. Terrorist attack in San Bernardino; 14 dead, 21 wounded. Husband and wife terrorist team killed in shootout. President Obama to address nation. 2. ISIS claims terrorists were supporters. 3. OPEC meets, no agreement on output. 4. Wild ride as US data and ECB roil markets. Economic News 1. ECB cuts rates, extends QE, markets demand more. [...]
When a problem comes along You must whip it Before the cream sets out too long You must whip it When something's goin' wrong You must whip it - Devo Did anyone get the license plate of the truck that hit the bulls last Thursday? If not, maybe you managed to catch a glimpse of it when it backed over the [...]
Within the last two months, the S&P 500 Index (IVV) has rebounded remarkably from the lows made in late August, breaking above both moving averages and getting close to new all-time highs. And after a whirlwind week, in which the market both fell and rose vehemently because interest rates are due to rise (wtf!?, can't you make up your mind?), the index [...]
If the junk bond bubble was this week’s most visible inducement toward illiquidity, there have been more than enough indications that might corroborate and explain. With a few more days trading, the huge jump in BofAML’s CCC junk index rate has been confirmed – with another albeit smaller surge again yesterday. At now 16.74%, that is significantly above the prior [...]
The numbers all change with each month, but nothing really changes. And that includes how the economy changed in 2012 and clearly again in 2015. By raw count of the payroll figures, there were positive numbers in every location in the latest update as only full-time employment was close to zero growth (only +3k for November). The labor force grew [...]
As the manufacturing recession becomes more and more unassailable (and I mean that in more than one way), the fact that it still shows no end or let up suggests still greater difficulty beyond manufacturing. As feedback loops become more established and robust, and thus convince more and more non-manufacturing firms to adjust instead of waiting out for Janet Yellen’s [...]
Language itself being imprecise, it is often difficult to assign terminology that exactly fits the circumstances or processes being described. So often convention thinks and writes and speaks of monetarisms as if they were drugs like speed or heroin; the efficacious inducement toward uninhibited recklessness. Thus, “markets” are the addicts that only perform in the presence of the intoxicant. This [...]
Volvo Trucks announced yesterday that they were laying off a quarter of the 2,800 people employed at its plant in Dublin, VA. Notifications were made according to regulations about mass layoffs, these set to take place in February. While the loss of 730 jobs clearly falls within the “12%” of the manufacturing recession, the reason for them lies outside that [...]
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