Markets

Survey of Salient Risks to Financial Stability

By |2023-10-23T15:09:14-04:00October 23rd, 2023|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Here is a brief summary of what is of concern to domestic and international policymakers, academics, community groups, and others. We might call these "known risks." Persistent inflation and monetary tightening Persistent or reaccelerating inflationary pressures Resilient economic outlook leading to further monetary policy tightening Volatile market conditions Entrenched expectations of higher inflation leading to higher realized inflation leading to [...]

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Weekly Market Pulse: An Ego Driven Fed

By |2023-10-22T18:25:55-04:00October 22nd, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Well, I finally got it. I've been fighting COVID for the last week and while most of my symptoms have improved, I am not 100% yet. My goal from the beginning of COVID was to avoid it, if at all possible, until it became endemic and less lethal. It seemed logical to me, a layman, that it would follow this [...]

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Macro: Philly Fed

By |2023-10-19T11:51:39-04:00October 19th, 2023|Markets|

A slight improvement in current conditions for manufacturing in the region, but still negative. Feelings about New Orders improved and jumped into positive territory. Similar to the New York release, trending in the right direction. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy [...]

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Macro: Sept Industrial Production

By |2023-10-17T13:57:23-04:00October 17th, 2023|Markets|

Industrial production broadly appears to have 0% growth since March and to be treading water. But, the general direction is better than it looks from that view. Since the 4th quarter of 2022 was so bad, if we continue this trajectory, the annual growth will start to show up. What's not quite as inspiring is that the growth is mostly [...]

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The Happiest Workers are 65 and Older

By |2023-10-17T09:17:07-04:00October 17th, 2023|Markets|

If you’re 65 years old and still working, you may be part of an elite group of American workers. Pew Research Center, in its latest jobs survey, found that employees aged 65 and older are the happiest employees in the workforce. The survey found: Two-thirds of those 65+ are extremely or very satisfied with their jobs, compared with: 55% of [...]

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Weekly Market Pulse: Prophets of Doom

By |2023-10-16T08:05:11-04:00October 15th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

I said a couple of years ago that I thought that once all the distortions were past, we'd be back to where we started prior to COVID, but with more debt. The decade from 2010 to 2020 was the slowest decade of nominal GDP growth since WWII and the prospect of another decade of that wasn't all that appealing but [...]

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Macro: Sep CPI stuck at 3.7% YOY

By |2023-10-13T03:39:59-04:00October 12th, 2023|Markets|

The most anticipated release of the week came in ... "Unchanged" or sticky stuck from August at 3.7% yoy. But it's worth mentioning as we will discuss below that this is up from June CPI which was 3.09% yoy. Core CPI which excludes food and energy because of their volatility sits at 4.13% yoy down from 4.39% last month. Let's [...]

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Weekly Market Pulse: Good News Is Good News

By |2023-10-09T07:12:39-04:00October 8th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The employment report on Friday seemed like a good one. The unemployment rate was unchanged as the economy added 336,000 jobs in September. The gains were widespread with additions in manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation, warehousing, leisure and hospitality, healthcare and education, and government. Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% for the month and 4.2% year-over-year. It was [...]

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