There were some very smart people a year ago saying that you couldn't kill inflation without a big rise in unemployment. Last October, Larry Summers - former Treasury Secretary and President of Harvard - said we'd need a recession and an unemployment rate of 6% to kill inflation. In the summer of last year, he said we'd need 5 years [...]
The age old argument of the importance of labor versus capital in society. Heather Cox Richardson, professor of history at Boston College, presents the viewpoints of South Carolina Senator James Henry Hammond and "rising politician Abraham Lincoln." Plot spoiler, it seems not much has changed since the late 1850's. It's a nice concise summary of the argument. https://open.substack.com/pub/heathercoxrichardson/p/september-2-2023?r=5wnnr&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Unchanged this century. Value or no? Certainly a topic for discussion. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or an investment outlook. The opinions and conclusions contained in [...]
Why, man, he doth bestride the narrow world Like a Colossus, and we petty men Walk under his huge legs and peep about To find ourselves dishonorable graves. Men at some time are masters of their fates. The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves, that we are underlings. Julius Caesar, Act I, Scene II The [...]
Stocks are now down from their late July peak by about 5%. It has been a very orderly pullback with most of the major averages shaving off about the same amount. The exceptions are the NASDAQ, which peaked a little earlier than the S&P, and REITs, both down about 7.5%. The NASDAQ is more volatile than the S&P so it [...]
The 10 year Treasury yield has been in an uptrend since the summer of 2021 which is obvious to anyone who can see. It has stalled a couple of times and moved sideways - consolidated in Wall Street technical speak - but the trend is obvious (see below). It seems only a matter of time before we break above the [...]
The stock market was down a little over 2% last week in what may be the start of a larger correction. Or not. Technically it is easy to make a case for a little more downside to the 50-day moving average, a total pullback of about 5%, and then a resumption of the uptrend. That's what happens in bull markets. [...]
You've probably heard the phrase "soft landing" a lot lately. It has, over the last couple of months, become the new economic consensus. The economy continues to perform better than expected despite the Fed raising interest rates steadily - and fairly rapidly - over the last year. The most recent hike was just this past week and put the Fed [...]
The US economy was supposed to be in recession by now, right? The yield curve inverted almost a year ago and a slew of other reliable recession indicators have been flashing red for some time. Why not this time? Could the unprecedented response to COVID be to blame? Joe Calhoun connects the dots in the 7th issue of Follow the Money, [...]
*This week's Market Pulse will be a short one, as Joe is on a well-deserved weekend getaway. This market rally from the lows of October 2022 continues to surprise and impress. It started off as a very narrow rally where a few big tech names were pushing the S&P 500 higher, but there is much more participation now. This stock [...]
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