Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about last week's rise in bond yields and what it means.
Weekly Market Pulse: Inflation Scare?
Bonds sold off again last week with the yield on the 10-year Treasury closing over 1.6% for the first time since early June. The yield is now down just 16 basis points from the high of 1.76% set on March 30. But this rise in rates is at least a little different than the fall that preceded it. When nominal [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 115, Part 3: For Bonds, A Collateral Scarcity ‘Dashboard’
115.3 Seven Warning Signs to Watch in Debt Ceiling Drama ———Ep 115.3 Summary———Financial collateral is indispensable to the modern monetary system. Unfortunately the most pristine collateral, the US Treasury Bill, is in short supply because of the political debt ceiling drama. So, we identify seven warning indicators for acute collateral shortage. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the [...]
Until This Changes, Forget Inflation: Banks Bought Epic Amounts of Safe, Liquid Assets in H1 ’21
The first half of 2021 was inundated with government helicopters, more QE’s, and then CPI’s put up with guarantees the “inflation” was going to continue for a long time. Jamie Dimon, JP Morgan’s often hapless CEO, proudly declared US Treasuries beyond the touch of any 10-foot pole. With the economy on fire, he “reasoned”, who would ever want safe and [...]
For The Love Of Unemployment Rates
Here we are again. The labor force. The numbers from the BLS are simply staggering. During September 2021, the government believes it shrank for another month, down by 183,000 when compared to August. This means that the Labor Force Participation rate declined slightly to 61.6%, practically the same level in this key metric going back to June.Last June.These millions, yes, [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 115, Part 2: The Fall For Bond, Treasury Bond
115.2 US Treasury Bonds lose value each Autumn - Why?———Ep 115.2 Summary———Since 2011, the US Treasury 10-year bond peaks in value during the summer-to-autumn transition. Ignoring the economic context, whether positive or negative, bonds lose value. They lose value whether central banks are hawkish or dovish. Why? We offer five theories. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading [...]
This Stag Already Decides Which ‘flation’?
With so little to like about Japan’s own economy, the Japanese long ago had come to count on putting their money and their efforts elsewhere. General fortune has therefore become a product of eurodollar fickleness; reflation in the global monetary system “allows” Japan a bit of additional breathing room. The economy picks up and confuses central bankers and Economists alike [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 115, Part 1: The Autumn(s) Of (Bond) Discontent
115.1 Why do US Treasury Bonds lose value 'every' August !?———Ep 115.1 Summary———US Treasury Bonds have lost a lot of value since August, and especially in the last weeks of September. Is it a taper tantrum? Are foreigners selling lousy Uncle Sam paper? Is it Armageddon (again)? No, this happens—incredibly—'every' August. But why?———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) [...]
The Consequences of What You Don’t See
Because it’s what you don’t see that ultimately matters, the public is left entirely in the dark unable to join what really should be easy dots to connect. Something is wrong, and pretty much everyone acknowledges this if in their own way. We can see the social and political disintegration before our very eyes, the anger, the “revolution”, even the [...]
The Other Side of Sliding Commodities; Was There Ever ‘Too Many’ Goods?
Spend even a modest amount of time on the subject, and the distinct impression you are left with is that American ports and railyards are dealing with a truly epic jam because the economy has been so good there’s just too many goods for anyone to reasonably handle. Juiced by the federal government’s helicopters, Americans spent, spent some more, and [...]
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