Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO talks about last week's reversal in bonds yields, if there's a growth scare, what the yield curve is saying, plus reports on wages & salaries, core capital goods, and jobless claims.
Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Scare?
A couple of weeks ago the 10-year Treasury note yield rose 16 basis points in the course of 5 trading days. That move was driven by near-term inflation fears as I discussed last week. Long-term inflation expectations were and are well behaved. I wrote nearly 2000 words last week about that change in inflation expectations and I'm so glad you [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 3: Never Getting Inflation Right And The (money) Reasons Behind The Continuous Errors
136.3 1970s Inflation Then, But Not Now Because... ———Ep 136.3 Summary———A review of transcripts and recordings from the 1970s reveals that monetary and political authorities were unable to identify the source of inflation (international liquidity creation). The authorities didn't understand money in the 1970s, and they still don't. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, blog [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 2: The Yield Curve Blasts Cold Water All Over The ‘Red Hot’ Economy
136.2 Sorry, US Treasury Yield Curve Delivers Bad News———Ep 136.2 Summary———The US Treasury yield curve IS NOT inverted and, therefore, is not signaling a recession warning. But IT IS warning that the Federal Reserve's reasoning to "taper" its quantitative easing program (i.e. economic recovery/health) is unfounded. We saw this in 2018. And 2014. And 2005. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 136, Part 1: Despite Recent Debt Ceiling T-bill Relief This Whole Year Has Been Unambiguous Dollar Woes
136.1 USA Debt Ceiling Reprieve Saves Chinese, and World?———Ep 136.1 Summary———The 'debate' in the US Congress about the debt 'ceiling' prevented the US Treasury Dept. from issuing UST Bills, the ultimate risk-free asset. This put serious stress on the Chinese currency. Now, with the 'debate' tabled till December, Beijing (and the world) are safe... for now.———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke [...]
Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun describes the move in bonds last week, what it means, and how it's different than a similar move in the spring of 2021.
Weekly Market Pulse: Inflation Scare!
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial stock averages made new all-time highs last week as bonds sold off, the 10-year Treasury note yield briefly breaking above 1.7% before a pretty good-sized rally Friday brought the yield back to 1.65%. And thus we're right back where we were at the end of March when the 10-year yield hit its high [...]
Trying To Invest Prosperously In These Times Of China’s Common Prosperity
Maybe the problem is the slogans, though I seriously doubt it. There are, admittedly, way too many and perhaps there is something lost in the translation. Going from Chinese to English can be notoriously tricky, and by sheer number of official catchphrases odds are a few are going to be miscast at the very least. Rebalancing. Rejuvenation. Dual Circulation. No [...]
Weekly Market Pulse: Perception vs Reality
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times... Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities Some see the cup as half empty. Some see the cup as half full. I see the cup as too large. George Carlin The quote from Dickens above is one that just about everyone knows even if they don't [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 122, Part 3: The Making Of Fed Mistakes, Volcker’s Enduring Myth
122.3 1970s stagflation? No! But NOT why you think...———Ep 122.3 Summary———"Despite some eerie echoes, the past is not the best guide to the present," writes The Economist. Jeff Snider agrees, but for entirely different reasons. Stagnation? Yes, definitely. But NOT inflation - despite the clear price increases! Wait, what?———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest essays, [...]
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