As is my usual practice, this will be my last commentary for the year barring big news (and most "news" isn't, especially that of the market variety). While I won't be writing for the next month, that doesn't mean I won't be working. I use the month of December to catch up on my research reading (books and academic papers) [...]
This is not just an artwork; it represents a cultural phenomenon that bridges the worlds of art, memes, and the cryptocurrency community. I believe this piece will inspire more thought and discussion in the future and will become a part of history. I am honored to be the proud owner of this iconic work and look forward to it [...]
I don't spend a lot of time trying to predict the future, mostly because, as I pointed out just last week, I'm not very good at it. There's no shame in that and it doesn't impair my ability to invest; the gift of prophecy is not necessary. A couple of weeks ago, right before the election I speculated on what [...]
But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions... - Alan Greenspan, The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society, at the Annual Dinner and Francis Boyer Lecture of The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C., December 5, 1996 Are investors too optimistic? [...]
This week's update will be confined to the observations in the labeled sections below. My wife and I have been in NYC since the middle of last week to explore some previously unknown family relationships courtesy of 23andMe. It has been an exciting week for our previously small family. My wife is - was - an only child - adopted [...]
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, there are a lot of questions facing investors. There are, of course, always a lot of questions because investors are always dealing with the future, but today's environment does seems to have more than usual. Some of these questions concern short-term considerations and while they are important, it is more important to [...]
There has been a lot of talk over the last few months about the US economy slowing but there is scant evidence of it in the economic data. The latest lack of evidence came last Friday with the release of the September employment report which was quite a bit better than expected. The establishment survey showed the economy added 254k [...]
What do you get when the Central Bank lowers interest rates by 50 basis points in a good economy? Just what we've seen since this happened on September 18, a surge in commodities. Is your portfolio diversified? Ebbs and flows in the market can sneak up on us and today's markets react quickly and sometimes violently. Did you see the [...]
Well, they did it. The Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points last week and indicated that there is likely more to come. Stock investors liked it, bidding up small cap stocks (S&P 600) by 2.25%, large caps (S&P 500) by 1.4%, and the NASDAQ by 1.5%. Most other markets also did as expected with emerging market [...]
It's Fed week again, when the monetary mandarins gather to set interest rates and guide the economy according to the latest 3-year plan (central planning may not have worked for the communists but our people are smarter). This is a quarterly meeting when they'll sift through the tea leaves or gaze into their crystal balls or whatever they do to [...]
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