Market & Economic Analysis

"Study the past if you would devine the future." - Confucius

China, Australia, and The European Way Into Reverse Repo

We are going to start here with Europe before heading to Australia and then getting to China – and then currency. Why the ECB? It is going through the same pangs of dissatisfaction as its cousin the Federal Reserve had last summer. Like the Fed in 2020, Europe’s central bank in 2021 has climbed to the end of its grand [...]

By |2021-09-01T20:19:50-04:00September 1st, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 97: No Tapering *Our* Tantrum

97.0 Taper (but no) Tantrum! Why not? ———Ep 97.0 Summary———Jay Powell announced his central bank is satisfied (enough) with the economy's direction. Thus, the Fed will soon be 'tapering'; lessening the 'monetary stimulus'. What did bond-money markets say? Did they have a tantrum? No, because they don't believe what Jay believes. ———See It——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———Ep [...]

Yes And No Taper To Labor (and inflation)

It doesn’t really make much sense, does it? If you stop and think about it for more than a quick second, this notion of a labor shortage doesn’t get past the smell test. The economy overall is, we hear, booming. Really booming. And it’s booming in a way that has the labor market healing far faster than thought not long [...]

By |2021-09-01T17:37:08-04:00September 1st, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Not Black Mouth To Bad Mouth The Global Causes of Transitory Inflation

Apparently, analysts were shocked when the Conference Board reported earlier today that its measure of consumer confidence, its own bread and butter, in the name, after all, dropped by a rather substantial eleven-plus points in August. And that was on top of a four-point downward revision to July. The new level of 113.8 compares to average expectations for ~124.0. Therefore, [...]

From The Blackest of Mouths: China’s (deflationary) Slowdown Picks (way) Up

At great risk of upsetting China’s army of censors, I’m going to “slander” the Chinese economy anyway. Were I a comrade within that particular nation, I’d now get labeled a “black mouth” spreading misinformation in the form of actual up-to-date data published by the same Communist government fearing its spread. Rate of change in the economy goes down, rate of [...]

Finally, QuEstioning ‘Easy Money’

A fascinating and useful bit of economic research was put forward just last month by Britain’s House of Lords (and thanks to Greg for digging it up). That body’s Economic Affairs Committee heard detailed testimony on the subject of Quantitative Easing, commonly known as QE. From the title of the report prepared in advance of the witnesses presenting their opinions [...]

China’s Free ‘Statement’ About Black Mouth Taper Without Tantrum

Contrary to the romanticized version of The Revolution, communists and Communists alike are almost always from the upper stretches of society. Mostly students from mainly affluent families, such as what had formed the basis of Castro’s takeover of Cuba, pumped full of stylized academia they seek to idealize an imperfect world in order to impose upon our messy humanity. Given [...]

Fiduciary vs Suitability Standard

Today we hear the word fiduciary tossed around as some concept that means the same thing by everyone who utters it. Nothing could be further from the truth. A fiduciary, according to Investopedia is:   … a person or organization that acts on behalf of another… putting their clients' interest ahead of their own, with a duty to preserve good [...]

By |2021-08-30T12:17:16-04:00August 30th, 2021|Markets|

Weekly Market Pulse: The Illusion of Control

Jerome Powell delivered his long-anticipated speech at Jackson Hole last week. Well actually, I have no idea if he was actually in Jackson Hole since the speech was delivered electronically, another victim of the delta variant. The virus itself rated barely a mention in Mr. Powell's remarks and I think that is probably as it should be. There has been [...]

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