Market & Economic Analysis

"Study the past if you would devine the future." - Confucius

Covering (In) COT Blue

It was late on a Tuesday night, in the middle of last week, Christmas week of all weeks, with most people already checked out. Having finally obtained Congressional support and approval, the $900 billion plus “stimulus” (read: stipend) was on its way to becoming reality after months of politically-motivated uncertainty. Not one to sit idly by while everyone else had [...]

By |2020-12-28T18:34:29-05:00December 28th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Episode 40; Part 3: Inflation on TV But Not In Real Life

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Episode 40 will be the final one for 2020. Episode 41 will pick back up in early January, ~10th. ———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjV PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK ListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pb AmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2P PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, a jerk. Artwork by [...]

Tactical Update: Long-Term Trends

Note: There are a lot of charts in this post. That doesn't mean that we are technicians. We use charts because we are primarily interested in trends, especially long-term, big-picture trends. And charts are the easiest way to present that information. In general, you will want your tactical adjustments to respect the long-term trend. There are times when it makes [...]

Episode 40; Part 2: Dimon Says UST’s Have Cooties

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Episode 40 will be the final one for 2020. Episode 41 will pick back up in early January, ~10th. ———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjV PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK ListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pb AmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2P PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, cootie-free. Artwork by David [...]

Evidence Only For Hysteria

The people who believe they are the Federal Reserve’s biggest critics are actually Jay Powell’s most vocal supporters right now. Rather than being bothered by all the “Weimar” memes and printer-go-brrrrr jokes, US central bank officials welcome such free press (pun intended). Anything that contributes to the idea there will be inflation – a little or a ton – helps [...]

By |2020-12-23T16:23:24-05:00December 23rd, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Going Back Inside Lehman One More Time: An Important and Relevant Follow-up

Lehman Brothers was a cultural marker, the kind of thing that sticks for generations because of all the wrong reasons. Hardly anyone had heard of the investment bank throughout its unbelievably long history stretching back to the middle of the 1840’s (yes, eighteen forties). But being near the center of a multi-generational breakdown causing as yet-untold damage and misery extending [...]

By |2020-12-22T17:50:39-05:00December 22nd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Inflation Binary

Blame Milton Friedman for this one, too. The economist made many significant contributions to the advancement of economic understanding, but perhaps an equal number of extreme errors. For one thing, that whole bout with bank reserves and “high powered money” (what became QE) recommended in the late nineties to cure Japan of its obvious monetary illness. This followed from the [...]

By |2020-12-21T17:11:46-05:00December 21st, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 40; Part 1: The Inside Story of Lehman, Collateral, and Why Always Premature Celebrations

PROGRAMMING NOTE: Episode 40 will be the final one for 2020. Episode 41 will pick back up in early January, ~10th. ———WHERE——— AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Deezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPE iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Pandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3Qg Breaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFO Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Podbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDgh Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjV PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt SoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfK ListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pb AmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2P PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———WHO——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiArt: https://davidparkins.com/ Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, possesses outside information. Artwork [...]

TIC October: More Foreign Bills & More Private Corporates

Since we highlighted the action in T-bills yesterday and the day before, it’s worth at least mentioning what TIC had to say about the instruments. Foreigners had been reducing their holdings of them not out of growing distaste but rather the opposite. There’s not nearly as many of them, not enough for what’s demanded, the Treasury Department quite purposefully (and [...]

By |2020-12-18T19:42:42-05:00December 18th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Not Manipulation, Montagu’s Monkey

The Chinese have never subscribed to the modern wave of “transparency” which has swept over Western central banks. The People’s Bank of China, Big Mama, very much operates instead on the doctrine which preceded it. Basically, Montagu Norman’s way of doing things. Never explain, never excuse.This mantra has been applied to what it does outside of China as much as [...]

By |2020-12-18T19:06:08-05:00December 18th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|
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