We had a bad 1st quarter relative to historic averages for job cuts. But the situation has gotten better throughout the year. In the 3rd quarter of 2023 less people are losing their job relative to the average 3rd quarter going back to 1989. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to [...]
This was a slight downward revision. Nothing to cheer and really nothing to write home about. September Durable Goods were revised down .1% MoM in Sept and .05% MoM in Aug. Here's a picture of Factory Orders. Looking at this time series, it's almost as if the recession that has been 2 years in the waiting was merely coming off [...]
Initial claims remain historically low. *A slight uptick this week and the 4 week MA has turned higher. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or an [...]
New orders up, backlogs down, employment down, inflation up. Index at 50, kiss your mother. As with the regional surveys, the takeaway here as the Chief Economist of S&P Global says, "conditions stabilize." There is not a good gauge on direction here. S&P Global PMI ISM Manufacturing came in at 46.7, again below 48.7 the baseline for contraction/expansion. ISM Manufacturing [...]
In August the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee (TBAC) told the market they were raising the net new money issuance recommendation for Q32023 from the initial guess of $733B to over $1T. They also announced a recommendation of $852B of net new money for Q42023. That spooked the bond market and 10-year yields jumped from 4% at the beginning of August [...]
The most likely candidate for what moved markets today is the GDPNow update. The forecast for growth in Q4 dropped from an initial forecast of 2.3% to 1.2%. Of note, this is also a much slower growth than we saw in Q3. The bond market certainly reacted as yields continued to drop. The stock market appears to be reacting to [...]
The Fed left the policy rate unchanged at a range of 5.25-5.5%. Thinking about future meetings, Powell said that they he believes policy is restrictive and is working to bring down economic activity and inflation. But, he also said that they do not know whether the current policy rate is sufficiently tight enough to bring down inflation to 2% over [...]
A slight zig in the right direction versus September for both reports. ADP reported an addition of 113,000 jobs in October up from 89,000 in September. Even better, this was a steady increase throughout the month and not an isolated week. For the Jolts report, this number is a month stale. But it's a good one to look at because [...]
Total construction spending is growing at 8.7% and that is an increase from 7.6% growth last month. Like we saw in the housing data, residential construction is improving. It now stands at -2.1% from a year ago, an improvement from the -4.4% yoy growth we saw last month. Non-residential spending is where we see an absolute boom. The reshoring story [...]
From the press release: The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Survey "US Consumer Confidence fell again in October." "Consumers remain pessimistic about the future--even as they continued to spend." "The Present Situation Index—based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions—declined to 143.1 (1985=100) from 146.2. The Expectations Index—based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—fell slightly to [...]
Stay In Touch