Just confirming, wage growth is running around 4.5%. This is still elevated relative to history and not consistent with an inflation target of 2%. But the growth is coming down. Government wages actually had an uptick in the 3rd qtr. I would not expect that to continue. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not [...]
It seems like we just rang in the new year and here we are almost at the end of 2023. My dad told me the older I got, the faster things would go, and he wasn’t wrong. So, with the time left before the end of the year, there are some financial matters you need to attend to before you [...]
After a big optimistic jump in new orders in September there is a slight down tick in both survey categories. So, a few more respondents reporting decreasing activity. Activity isn't increasing, but the small change doesn't indicate deterioration. Status quo until next month's releases. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an [...]
A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. - Warren Buffett, October 16, 2008, Buy American. I Am. , New York Times That was a month after the bankruptcy filing of Lehman Brothers, in the teeth of the Great Financial Crisis. At the beginning of the article he admits that [...]
The growth rate of income and consumption are at healthy levels. But there are some aspects of the growth I'd like to point out. Though we have healthy rates of growth, the concern is that both incomes and consumption are slowing. I know we had excess savings from government transfers to the private sector. But we also had excess spending [...]
If we look at inflation on a year over year basis, the data series is smooth and it is coming down. The rate of decent has slowed, but that's ok, the world doesn't work in perfectly smooth arcs and waves. The month over month annualized rate is a shorter term (very volatile) rate. As such, it will lead when there [...]
Here's a good visual of the K-shaped recovery from the pandemic. This is top the 1/3 in income versus the bottom 1/3 (terciles). The K would likely get even more distinct if we looked at quartiles, quintiles and deciles. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the [...]
Sales firmed to an annual rate 16.23 million units in September after dropping below 16 million in August. This is about 7% higher than the historic average. Buyers delayed purchases because of price spikes and lack of inventory. The more interesting and important data are the production and inventory numbers. Production continues to rise as companies try to re-build inventory. [...]
Measures of inflation GDP price deflator: 3.24% Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index YoY: 3.43% Core PCE (ex-Food and Energy): 3.9% All well above 2% target. All have been coming down. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None [...]
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