SPECIAL REPORT: Debt, Deficit, & Interest Expense (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses investor fear over debt, deficit, and interest expense.
Macro: Markets — Banks exit overnight trade and extend duration
For the first time since March we are seeing a positive correlation between bond yields and reverse repos sold by the Fed. The change started during the last week of October and has continued throughout November. The correlation in March coincided with bank failures, mainly Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. In between March and the end of October, the [...]
Macro: NFIB Small Business Optimism — Pessimistic on Earnings Trend
Small businesses continue to be pessimistic. The National Federation of Independent Business Optimism Index came in down .1 at 90.7. The survey measures opinions about business and economic conditions in October relative to September. This is the 22nd straight month that the index has been below 98, the 50 year historic average. The most cited reason for pessimism is they [...]
Weekly Market Pulse: Dark Matter
It's the residual of all the stuff we can't explain. It's not that our models are wrong, it's the dark matter that's out there. - Fed Governor Neel Kashkari, referring to the "term premium" in long term Treasury yields The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can [...]
COVID & The Economy (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun details the effect Covid had on the U.S. Economy.
Macro: Consumer Sentiment — 6 month low
The trend for consumer sentiment is still higher off the lows in the summer of 2022. But I am concerned about that trend. This month's preliminary number is 60.4. That is 4 monthly declines in a row and a new 6-month low. Additionally, inflation expectations ticked up to 4.4% from 4.2%. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only [...]
Macro: Initial Claims — nothing has changed
Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or an investment outlook. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of the individual expressing those opinions. This [...]
Macro: Wholesale Trade: sales and inventories
Sales of durable goods at wholesalers remains in decline versus a year ago. The drop is from professional equipment (computers and software) and minerals and metals. Non-durable has returned to growth. The growth is not broad but mostly about petroleum and to a lesser extent, drugs. Durable goods' inventories remain high while non-durable goods inventories have dipped just below the [...]
Macro: Banking: Senior Loan Officer’s Survey and Lending
Banks continue to tighten lending standards across all sectors. This has eased a bit from the July survey. Banks continue to widen spreads across all sectors. The percentage of banks widening spreads has also eased a tad. Banks are not seeing increasing demand for loans. I'm just posting survey results for C&I loans, the graph is very similar for commercial [...]
Macro: International Trade
Trade is still in decline but conditions are improving. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation of an offer to buy any investment products. None of the information herein constitutes an investment recommendation, investment advice or an investment outlook. The opinions and conclusions contained in [...]
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