The Fed meets this week and is widely expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% to a range of 4.5% - 4.75%. The market has factored in a small probability that they do nothing and leave rates alone, but they'll probably do what's expected because they've spent the last couple of months preparing the markets for exactly this [...]
Inflation* in the US is falling rapidly with the CPI rising just 0.9% in the second half of 2022 versus 5.4% in the first six months. Existing home sales are down 14.6% in the last 3 months and 34% over the last year. Housing starts are down 22% and permits are down 30% year-over-year. Orders for durable goods are down [...]
In December 2022, Congress and the president did what they do best—spend more money--$1.7 trillion. The spending includes $858 billion for the military, $772 billion for domestic priorities, another $45 billion for Ukraine, and oh, by the way, enough money to keep the government running until September 2023, which was allegedly the reason for the whole process to begin with. [...]
The inflation report last week was met with a big sigh of relief by investors. Stocks and bonds rallied as the Fed's Whip Inflation Now project seems to be finally bearing some fruit. In reality, inflation peaked months ago but the Fed hadn't really caught on yet - they're a little slow - and the market has been fearing that [...]
I am a visual person so I use charts to see the trends in markets. Tactical changes to your portfolio are difficult because there is so much noise out there it is hard to know what you should act on and what you should ignore. Charts make the job easier by eliminating the noise. Follow the trends. Own things that [...]
What's your outlook for this year? I've heard that question repeatedly over the last month and if you're reading this hoping I'll let you have a peek at my crystal ball, you're going to be disappointed. Because I don't have a crystal ball and neither, I hasten to add, does anyone else in this business. So, no, I don't know [...]
I don't know how many times I've seen blog posts or articles or Tweets about negative consumer sentiment over the last year. These articles rightly point out that the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is sitting near (or at a few months ago) 50 year lows. This fact is taken as a negative for the economy and therefore stocks. [...]
We received a host of economics reports this past week; some good, others not so much. The week started with the Consumer Price Index report coming in better than expected at an increase of just 0.1% from the previous month (7.1% from a year ago), compared with respective estimates of 0.3% and 7.3%. This is great news (and the market [...]
Legendary investor and Berkshire Hathaway vice-chair Charles Munger recently stated: "The world is not driven by greed. It’s driven by envy." I think this perfectly encapsulates our current investing era. In a day and age where social media has replaced not only traditional news media but human interaction, where influencers and gamers are top career aspirations for the nation’s youth, [...]
From Eurodollar Deflation to Financial Repression Inflation; the risks and the consequences.
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